Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015
Brrrrrrrr, it’s bloody chilly here in the SotD chair at the moment and I’m struggling to buy a winner.
No complaints though from me (and thankfully, you guys!), as we all know it’s part of the cyclical nature of sticking one’s head above the parapet to be shot at on a daily basis!
For the record, Monday’s runner, Stardrifter had a stinker. Sent off at our advised 7/2 odds, he dwelt towards the rear of the pack and never really got involved, finishing 8th of 11 around four lengths off the pace.
I’m hoping a change of code and a famous family can bring about a halt to this poor run in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
There’s a possibility that during this recent losing spell, I’ve tried a bit too hard or been a bit too complicated in an effort to spark a return to form, so today is a back to basics job with the Twiston-Davies’s for this Class 3, 3m 1.5f chase on good ground, where 22 yr old Sam rides the 7/2 BOG Belmount for his dad Nigel, making this a notable selection for several reasons.
- In Class 3/4 chases of up to 3m2f since the start of 2012, Sam has ridden 76 winners (21.7% SR) from 350 for dad Nigel for a profit of 160.4pts at an ROI of 45.8%.
- Nigel’s 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 61/248 (24.6% SR) for 109.6pts (+44.2% ROI) in the months of August to October inclusive since the beginning of August 2010. Of those 248 runners, 5/6 yr old males are 25/65 (38.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+84.7% ROI).
- Over the last 10 yrs Nigel has an 18.8% strike rate (16/85) in chases here at Warwick with Class 3/4 runners winning 14 of 63 (22.2% SR), those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) whilst those running at trips of 3m0.5f to 3m2f have won 10 of 28 (35.7% SR).
All of which gives us the belief of a good run from Belmount, a horse who is 1 from 1 here at Warwick, courtesy of a win over hurdles at a similar trip to today (3m2f). He’s 1/1 over fences and also 1/1 at Class 3 level. He has won both starts on good ground, has four wins from six when priced at 4/1 or shorter and is 3 from 5 when young Sam is in the saddle.
Taking all those into consideration, 7/2 BOG doesn’t look a bad price for Belmount and I’ve gone with Hills this time, but with seven other firms also matching that price, you really should…
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