Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Brrrrrrrr, it’s bloody chilly here in the SotD chair at the moment and I’m struggling to buy a winner.

No complaints though from me (and thankfully, you guys!), as we all know it’s part of the cyclical nature of sticking one’s head above the parapet to be shot at on a daily basis!

For the record, Monday’s runner, Stardrifter had a stinker. Sent off at our advised 7/2 odds, he dwelt towards the rear of the pack and never really got involved, finishing 8th of 11 around four lengths off the pace.

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I’m hoping a change of code and a famous family can bring about a halt to this poor run in the…

4.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

There’s a possibility that during this recent losing spell, I’ve tried a bit too hard or been a bit too complicated in an effort to spark a return to form, so today is a back to basics job with the Twiston-Davies’s for this Class 3, 3m 1.5f chase on good ground, where 22 yr old Sam rides the 7/2 BOG Belmount for his dad Nigel, making this a notable selection for several reasons.

  1. In Class 3/4 chases of up to 3m2f since the start of 2012, Sam has ridden 76 winners (21.7% SR) from 350 for dad Nigel for a profit of 160.4pts at an ROI of 45.8%.
  2. Nigel’s 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 61/248 (24.6% SR) for 109.6pts (+44.2% ROI) in the months of August to October inclusive since the beginning of August 2010. Of those 248 runners, 5/6 yr old males are 25/65 (38.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+84.7% ROI).
  3. Over the last 10 yrs Nigel has an 18.8% strike rate (16/85) in chases here at Warwick with Class 3/4 runners winning 14 of 63 (22.2% SR), those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) whilst those running at trips of 3m0.5f to 3m2f have won 10 of 28 (35.7% SR).

All of which gives us the belief of a good run from Belmount, a horse who is 1 from 1 here at Warwick, courtesy of a win over hurdles at a similar trip to today (3m2f). He’s 1/1 over fences and also 1/1 at Class 3 level. He has won both starts on good ground, has four wins from six when priced at 4/1 or shorter and is 3 from 5 when young Sam is in the saddle.

Taking all those into consideration, 7/2 BOG doesn’t look a bad price for Belmount and I’ve gone with Hills this time, but with seven other firms also matching that price, you really should…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Warwick

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Here is today’s racecard.

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