Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2015

No luck/joy/whatever at Warwick on Tuesday afternoon as Belmount went down to a half length defeat as a victim of a truly magnificent ride by Richard Johnson aboard Dursey Sound.

Our boy had led 2 out, was headed over the last regained the lead on the flat and then was out battled in the shadow of the post in a pulsating finish to a 3m+ slog.

No complaints about the run, but the cold spell continues and opposing an odds on favourite isn’t always easy, but I’m doing so in Wednesday’s…

6.25 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where the presence of Ballet Concerto at 10/11 means we can get a very decent 9/2 BOG about Charlie Appleby’s Langlauf (which is the German word for cross-country skiing!) who will be accompanied by William Buick for this Class 5, 7 furlong maiden.

Charlie Appleby’s short training career to date has already seen him become very successful at this venue with 53 winners from just 198 runners (26.8% SR) on this track. Those winners have helped his followers make 49.7pts of level stakes goodness at an ROI of 25.1% from blind backing.

25.1% ROI is excellent, but we always like to tweak the blind stats a little to see how they fare under a specific race’s conditions, so here goes! Of the 198 Kempton A/W runners sent out by Charlie Appleby…

  • In maidens, he is 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 38.3pts (32.4% ROI)
  • His 2 yr olds are 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 48.4pts (44.4% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 38.4pts (38.0% ROI)
  • Female runners are 22/78 (28.2% SR) for 27.7pts (35.5% ROI)
  • In 7f races they are 16/62 (30.7% SR) for 33.7pts (54.4% ROI)
  • and those ridden by William Buick have won 20 of 44 races (45.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 13pts at an ROI of 29.5%.

From the above, it’s worth noting that… 2 yr old females in Class 5 Kempton maidens over 7 furlongs to a mile are 10/27 (37% SR) for 35pts (+129.6% ROI) profit.

Langlauf has run four times to date, finishing 4223 at trips of 7, 7.5 and 8 furlongs all on turf and she now switches to the A/W for the very first time. You might not be surprised to hear that I’ve also got a precedent for this happening too!

Charlie Appleby’s horses switching to the A/W for the very first time after 1 to 5 runs on turf (ie NOT debutants) have won 32 of their 105 A/W debuts (30.5% SR) for profits of 10.6pts (+10.1% ROI). This is, admittedly, a fairly low return for SotD purposes, but it’s still very worthwhile and also a good starting point for more tweaking!

So, of the 105 A/W first-timers…

  • those coming to Kempton are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 18.9pts  (35.7% ROI)
  • females are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 13.9pts (43.3% ROI)
  • those competing over 7 furlongs are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.3pts (90.3% ROI)
  • and William Buick has 10 wins from 21 (47.6% SR) for 6.3pts (29.9% ROI)

The combo to take from this is that 2 yr olds switching to A/W action at Kempton in a 7f contest are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.3pts (218.5% ROI)

I took my 9/2 BOG from Bet 365, but that price is also available with SkyBet and BetVictor, as can be seen if you…

…click here for the betting on the 6.25 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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