Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2015
No luck/joy/whatever at Warwick on Tuesday afternoon as Belmount went down to a half length defeat as a victim of a truly magnificent ride by Richard Johnson aboard Dursey Sound.
Our boy had led 2 out, was headed over the last regained the lead on the flat and then was out battled in the shadow of the post in a pulsating finish to a 3m+ slog.
No complaints about the run, but the cold spell continues and opposing an odds on favourite isn’t always easy, but I’m doing so in Wednesday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Where the presence of Ballet Concerto at 10/11 means we can get a very decent 9/2 BOG about Charlie Appleby’s Langlauf (which is the German word for cross-country skiing!) who will be accompanied by William Buick for this Class 5, 7 furlong maiden.
Charlie Appleby’s short training career to date has already seen him become very successful at this venue with 53 winners from just 198 runners (26.8% SR) on this track. Those winners have helped his followers make 49.7pts of level stakes goodness at an ROI of 25.1% from blind backing.
25.1% ROI is excellent, but we always like to tweak the blind stats a little to see how they fare under a specific race’s conditions, so here goes! Of the 198 Kempton A/W runners sent out by Charlie Appleby…
- In maidens, he is 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 38.3pts (32.4% ROI)
- His 2 yr olds are 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 48.4pts (44.4% ROI)
- Class 5 runners are 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 38.4pts (38.0% ROI)
- Female runners are 22/78 (28.2% SR) for 27.7pts (35.5% ROI)
- In 7f races they are 16/62 (30.7% SR) for 33.7pts (54.4% ROI)
- and those ridden by William Buick have won 20 of 44 races (45.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 13pts at an ROI of 29.5%.
From the above, it’s worth noting that… 2 yr old females in Class 5 Kempton maidens over 7 furlongs to a mile are 10/27 (37% SR) for 35pts (+129.6% ROI) profit.
Langlauf has run four times to date, finishing 4223 at trips of 7, 7.5 and 8 furlongs all on turf and she now switches to the A/W for the very first time. You might not be surprised to hear that I’ve also got a precedent for this happening too!
Charlie Appleby’s horses switching to the A/W for the very first time after 1 to 5 runs on turf (ie NOT debutants) have won 32 of their 105 A/W debuts (30.5% SR) for profits of 10.6pts (+10.1% ROI). This is, admittedly, a fairly low return for SotD purposes, but it’s still very worthwhile and also a good starting point for more tweaking!
So, of the 105 A/W first-timers…
- those coming to Kempton are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 18.9pts (35.7% ROI)
- females are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 13.9pts (43.3% ROI)
- those competing over 7 furlongs are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.3pts (90.3% ROI)
- and William Buick has 10 wins from 21 (47.6% SR) for 6.3pts (29.9% ROI)
The combo to take from this is that 2 yr olds switching to A/W action at Kempton in a 7f contest are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.3pts (218.5% ROI)
I took my 9/2 BOG from Bet 365, but that price is also available with SkyBet and BetVictor, as can be seen if you…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS