Double Dutch, 24th September 2015
We were denied the hat-trick on Wednesday, as we came away with a winner, two runners-up finishes and a fourth place. We got the first two home (as I expected) at Kempton with Gold Faith beating Rock Warbler by a length and a quarter, which afforded us the small consolation of a modest 5.7/1 exacta.
We missed out on a 14.75/1 double after Iffjack was beaten into second place at Perth, but we should give credit where it’s due. We weren’t even close to landing the double, as the winner beat our runner by a good 11 lengths, so no hard luck stories here. We just dust ourselves down and go again!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Iffjack : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Little Pop : 4th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Gold Faith : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Rock Warbler : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £6.70 to a £1 stake here.
Results to date:
681 winning selections from 2428 = 28.05%
217 winning bets in 630 days = 34.44%
P/L : +120.15pts (+9.54% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll be seeking a quick return to winning ways via these…
El Beau transferred his good hurdling form (11222 in his last five efforts over timber) to the Flat to land a Class 4 handicap over today’s trip at York 18 days ago, before stepping up two classes to this level at Ayr last time out. That was last Thursday and despite running from 3lbs out of the handicap, was a very creditable third, beaten by less than a length and a half.
He’s effectively off the same mark again and could be dangerous at the bottom of the weights in what looks a weaker race to last week and he’ll also have the benefit of Joe Doyle’s 3lb claim to help his effort here. Trainer John Quinn’s handicappers over 6f to 1m6f are 19/124 (15.3% SR) for 77pts (+62.1% ROI) when ridden by 3lb claimers over the last seasons and El Beau is priced at 9/4 BOG to be the latest winner.
Master of Finance has only visited Pontefract once before and that resulted in a course and distance win under today’s jockey Silvestre de Sousa and although not hitting those heights since, has largely put up some decent efforts. Admittedly his last two runs haven’t been great, but one was in a £31,000 race and the other was over a longer trip.
It is hoped the drop back in trip to a course and distance he has won at, allied to the fitting of first-time blinkers will spark an improvement and this is further boosted by the Johnston/De Sousa combination having a 16/63 (25.4% SR) record here at this track that has produced profits of 26.9pts (+42.7% ROI), making Master of Finance of interest today at 4/1 BOG.
According to some racecards (not ours!), Fagan has had just one run to date, when finishing third here at Perth over today’s trip in a 5-runner bumper when turned over at 4/6. He has however contested four PTP events since then, finishing fourth and then winning the last three, so he should come here in good heart.
Tie that in with a switch to Gordon Elliott’s yard, which is not only in great form at the moment and has a good record at this track, they also have decent figures with horses making their first start under Rules since a change of trainer. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in really good touch at the moment and combining all these factors makes Fagan hard to resist at 2/1 BOG.
I’d expect Trespassers Will to be the main beneficiary of any potential rustiness from the favourite, as this 4yr old will look to build upon a very creditable third on debut in a decent looking bumper at Wincanton back in April. He was pretty green early on that day, but once push came to shove, he settled into a rhythm and although worried out of second late on, gave signs of promise for the future.
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 22.9% strike rate here at this venue (8/35), whilst jockey Paddy Brennan not only has 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) over the last month, he has a 17.4% strike rate (52/299) on the O’Brien runners since the start of 2013 that has produced 120.8pts (+40.4% ROI) profit, suggesting that a 7/2 BOG bet on Trespassers Will wouldn’t be the worst thing you did today.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
El Beau / Fagan @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Betfred & Totesport)
El Beau / Trespassers Will @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair, Betfred & Totesport)
Master of Finance / Fagan @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : Coral)
Master of Finance / Trespassers Will @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Hills)