Stat of the Day, 25th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2015

For the second day in a row, we got a value price thanks to the presence of a short priced favourite that I didn’t fancy. Both times, the fav went unplaced, but unfortunately we fell short too!

Our 5/1 about Amber Mustique was a good call as she went off at 7/2, but despite a promising run, could only manage third place and whilst she’ll no doubt win races in the future, I could do with a couple right now!

I’m hoping that a trip to HQ will start some form of recovery, where a good start would be by finding the winner of the…

5.25 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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At 11/4 BOG, American Artist is towards the lower end of where I’m comfortable for an SotD selection, but there is some statistical justification in the selection of tRoger Varian’s 3yr old colt for this Class 2, Flat handicap over nine furlongs.

That way, you can insure against a shortening of the price, or if you prefer, you can always take your chances and wait for the reasoning.

The first thing to consider is the yard’s recent form, as that can often be a good indicator to a horse’s chances and Roger’s string are 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 52.1pts (+173.7% ROI) in the last fortnight alone, so blindly backing them of late has been very lucrative indeed.

It has also been profitable to blindly back every single one of Roger Varian’s handicap runners ever since his first one, Eton Forever, stepped out in early April 2011 to win at 10/1 at Doncaster and the team have hardly looked back since.

In pure numerical terms, the yard have had 126 winners from 638 handicap runners (19.75% SR) for level stakes profits of 101.9pts (+16% SR) from blindly following them. In layman’s terms, £20 on each would have made you just over £2000 in just less than four and a half years on a bet and forget basis.

I could list several ways in which you could increase the ROI, but I’ll just stick with a couple of simple ones for you today…

  1. 3 yr olds are 94/427 (22% SR) for 124.3pts (+29.1% ROI)
  2. Those running at trips of 9f to 12.5f are 55/248 (22.2% SR) for 102pts (+41.1% ROI)

There’s also a 19% return on backing Class 2 runners and a 33.3% strike rate when William Buick is in the saddle, but the two above are the largest sample sizes and when put together still give enough bets to provide meaningful data, as 3yo’s at 1m1f to 1m4.5f are 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 114.4pts (+67.3% ROI).

Which brings us nicely to American Artist, an in-form 3yr old colt, whose last four finishes (all in hcps) read 1121 with the sole defeat only coming by a neck in a tight finish. He’s 2 from 3 in handicaps 8 to 15 days since his last run and has won on the only other occasion that William Buick was in the saddle.

His recent form and the fact he was last seen just a fortnight ago reminded me of something else I look for and the upshot is that Roger Varian’s 3 and 4 yr olds running 11 to 15 days after a top4 finish last time out are 21/83 (25.3% SR) for 25.3pts at an ROI of 30.5% and I’d love for American Artist to extend that record for his and my own sake!

Hills are offering 11/4 BOG here, but they removed my BOG privileges this afternoon (probably due to the 11/1 winner I had on Stat Picks), so I’ve gone with Bet365 at the same odds, whilst there are a couple of others also around that price, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newmarket

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Here is today’s racecard.

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