Double Dutch, 25th September 2015
One winner from our two races yesterday, but we weren’t even close to landing a double as both runners in race 1 were convincingly beaten.
That meant Fagan’s expected win in the bumper at Perth was purely for my own pride, as I hate it when I lose both races of a DD post!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
El Beau : 4th at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Master of Finance : 5th at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Fagan : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Trespassers Will : 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
682 winning selections from 2432 = 28.04%
217 winning bets in 631 days = 34.39%
P/L : +118.15pts (+9.37% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday is generally tricky and today is no exception…
Gracious John is an interesting runner on his handicap debut, having shown some promise in a couple of defeats over 7.5f, before getting off the mark at the third time of asking when a drop back to 5.4f at York seemed to be the key. He has good early speed and it was only late on in the longer races that his levels dipped, so this bare 5f should be fine for him.
That win at York came 19 days ago, when he beat Poets Prize by two and a half lengths and the latter has since turned out again and won by a similar margin at Beverley nine days ago. Gracious John is now 5/2 BOG to double up.
Point of Woods, on the other hand, was well beaten last time out, but more on that in a moment. He started his career with increasingly promising runs (642) at 6f. He was caught very late on in the third race and beaten by just a head having made all. He was then dropped back to 5f and the same tactics were employed, enabling him to win by the best part of three lengths and the 4th placed horse (6.5L back) has won since.
Point of Woods has only run once since that win at Thirsk, finishing last of 9 and beaten by almost 20 lengths, but in his defence, that was a decent Listed race that has already produced a Group standard winner. I’m happy to ignore that run and this drop back in class should portray the horse in a better light and 6/1 BOG looks a decent offering.
Evacusafe Lady has an unconvincing career record of just 3 wins from 44 races, but she’s 3 from 10 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 5 over course and distance. It was at this time last year (26th September to be precise!) that she embarked on a run of three successive wins at this track inside a fortnight from a starting mark of 53, 11 days after her last run.
It has also been 11 days since she was last seen this time around too and she has shown plenty of signs of a return to form taking advantage of a falling handicap mark and off 55, has to be respected today. The booking of Martin Harley is a positive for me, as he’s 14/75 (18.7% SR) for 52pts (+69.4% ROI) in handicaps on the tapeta here and Evacusafe Lady is priced at 2/1 BOG to be his next success.
At the other end of the experience scale, Clara Schumann makes only her fourth start and her handicap debut and on bare form alone, she’d not be one that jumps out at you. She’s been fairly well beaten in races where she’s been outpaced at large odds. This race represents a step up in trip and a drop in class, so the pace of the contest should be more to her liking against poorer horses.
The fact she’s not done too well in three maidens gives her a very workable opening handicap mark of 57 and her trainer David O’Meara is a dab hand at getting his handicap debutants to win first time out with 19 of the 110 (17.3% SR) being successful since the start of 2013, generating 58.4pts at an ROI of 53.1%.
The market is, of course, aware of the change in race conditions for Clara Schumann and she’s accordingly priced at a more realistic 5/1 BOG than the 20’s she has run at in the past!
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Gracious John / Evacusafe Lady @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Gracious John / Clara Schumann @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Bet365 & Ladbrokes)
Point of Woods / Evacusafe Lady @ 19.13/1 (6/1 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Point of Woods / Clara Schumann @ 41/1 (6/1 & 5/1 : Bet365)