Stat of the Day, 26th September 2015
The theme for this week seems to be finding horses at reasonable prices that run well, but not quite well enough!
I’ve no complaints at all about the performance of American Artist from Friday afternoon, but he was a beaten 11/4 favourite, finishing in third place almost two lengths off the pace.
It’s possible that the dawdling nature of the contest didn’t suit him, but he was beaten by better runners on the day, end of story.
Saturday is the last chance this week to pick up some profit and although we’re a little behind the 8-ball at present, my MO remains the same as it has for a long time and there’s no tilting at windmills looking for the big-priced winner to bail me out.
The North-West calls (and why wouldn’t it?) and more particularly, the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Where, very briefly, I’m on Chicadoro at 7/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook for this 2yo maiden.
First thing to consider is the trainer here, Ralph Beckett, who just happens to be one I like to follow. And I like to follow him, because it’s profitable to do so!
No manipulation of figures, filtering of stats etc required, he’s simply profitable. Of course there are various angles that increase profitability and I’ve plenty of those to show you, but the bottom line stat we’ll work from today is this…
…if you’d backed every single one of Ralph’s 3130 runners (yes 3130!) over the last eight seasons, aside from placing nearly 400 bets a year, you’d have backed 503 winners (16.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have seen your betting bank increase by a whopping £11,204 (or 17.9% of stakes).
These are phenomenal returns from such a large sample size, but if you don’t want to back 400 runners a year from one trainer, here are 7 possible angles you could explore. All are relevant to today’s contest and are ranked in terms of sample size alone…
- at trips of 6f to 8.5f : 293/1838 (15.9% SR) for 503.7pts (+27.4% ROI)
- female runners are 249/1575 (15.8% SR) for 396.4pts (+25.2% ROI)
- Class 5 runners are 244/1258 (19.4% SR) for 278.5pts (+22.1% ROI)
- in maidens : 221/1189 (18.6% SR) for 332.3pts (+27.9% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 149/970 (15.4% SR) for 295.9pts (+30.5% ROI)
- on soft ground : 62/312 (19.9% SR) for 97.8pts (+31.3% ROI)
- ridden by Oisin Murphy : 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 17.3pts (+61.7% ROI)
You can take any of those in isolation or you can combine them. Obviously the more elements you combine, the smaller the sample size and I certainly won’t bore you with all the possible permutations, but if you want around 50 bets a year from a micro-system as part of a portfolio…
…females in class 4 to 6 maidens over 6 to 8.5 furlongs (but not on heavy ground) are 79/406 (19.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 360.7pts (+88.8% ROI) at Betfair SP, and we can normally beat this easily with BOG prices.
Chicadoro was second last time out, beaten by just a length staying on well on similarly soft ground at Chepstow almost four weeks ago. She should benefit from having had the run on soft ground and the fact that the third placed horse was a good seven lengths further back tells you how well she ran in defeat that day.
At this point, I felt I had enough to justify the selection, but as the “comedian” (I use the term loosely!) Jimmy Cricket used to say “There’s more!”.
I ws just going to wrap things up, when I realised that Chicadoro is Ralph’s only runner at Haydock and some trainers have a good record with what I call “solo travellers” and guess what? Yes, Mr Beckett is one of them, which meant I had to drag up another load of numbers for you. It’s a good job I love numbers!
So, since the start of 2009, when Ralph Beckett is represented by just one horse at a track, he has had 233 winners from 1260 such runners, a strike rate of 18.5% yielding profits of 283.6pts at an ROI of 22.5%, even better figures than the original stat I kicked off with!
Those 1260 runners broken down are…
- 170/934 (18.2% SR) for 285.3pts (+30.5% ROI) at trips of 6 to 10.5 furlongs
- 119/625 (19% SR) for 183.2pts (+29.3% ROI) from his females
- 146/595 (24.5% SR) for 254pts (+42.7% ROI) at Classes 5 & 6
- 104/458 (22.7% SR) for 121pts (+26.4% ROI) in maidens
- 64/353 (18.1% SR) for 112.5pts (+31.9% ROI) from his 2yr olds
- 26/101 (25.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+28.8% ROI) on soft ground
And for around 20 bets a year, let’s run with 2/3 yr old females in Class 5/6 maidens, but not on heavy ground. That pretty simple and to date, that strategy is 38/148 (25.7% SR) for 132.1pts (+89.3% ROI), and those priced below 4/1 are 24/53 (45.3% SR) for 19.2pts (+36.3% ROI)
And I think that’s enough!
You can see why I was happy to get 7/2 BOG from the Betfair Sportsbook about Chicadoro, but if you need/want to see what other firms are offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS