Double Dutch, 26th September 2015
Friday started really well, as Gracious John led Point of Woods home by three lengths at Haydock to secure a 1-2 finish for Double Dutch followers. This gave us a 5/2 winner to take to race 2 and also rewarded those doing the exotics with an exacta that paid out at 11.4/1.
It was at precisely that point that things stopped going well for us, though.
Race 2 was a washout for us, I’m afraid and the best we could muster was a 7 lengths defeat back in fourth place for Evacusafe Lady. The market didn’t like my other pick, Clara Schumann and she drifted out from my advised 5/1 to an SP of 11/1 and she justified the layers’ confidence by trooping home 9th of 13, almost 13 lengths adrift.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Gracious John : WON at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Point of Woods : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 6/1)
The exacta paid £12.40 here.
Evacusafe Lady : 4th at 10/3 (adv 2/1)
Clara Schumann : 9th at 11/1 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
683 winning selections from 2436 = 28.04%
217 winning bets in 632 days = 34.34%
P/L : +116.15pts (+9.20% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We round the week off as follows…
Good Contact ran consistently well in all four starts (2122) as a 2 yr old with his worst result being a defeat by a length and a quarter, but was disappointing in two runs earlier this season. A decision was then made to have him gelded and on his return from the operation he was a two lengths winner over today’s course and distance a fortnight ago.
With just the three runs under his belt this year, he should be fresher than his rivals and should have plenty left in the tank. The good to soft ground didn’t bother him a bit and the way he quickened late on was very impressive and I’m not convinced a 7lb rise in weights will be enough to stop him today. Former C&D winners fare well returning to Chester and at 5/2 BOG, Good Contact would have to be on the shortlist.
Hakka is another promising, consistent sort who commands respect here. He didn’t race as a two year old, but has been in the first three home in each of his five starts (21312) and would probably have won last time out, but for being hampered. He’s by Dansili out of a Group 1 winner, so his pedigree is impeccable and he has the benefit of being trained by Sir Michael Stoute…
…who has proven to be one of the more successful trainers at this quirky border venue. Not all horses are suited by the constant turning nature of this track, but some trainers are clearly set up better than others to deal with it and Sir Michael is 15/78 (19.2% SR) here since 2008 and 12/56 (21.4% SR) at 1m2f and beyond, suggesting a decent run from Hakka at around the 3/1 BOG mark.
Providing a 115 day lay off hasn’t dulled Dynamo Walt‘s competitive edge, I’d expect another strong run from this 4yr old gelding today. Last seen winning back to back races over this course and distance in late May/early June, he now comes here seeking a C&D hat-trick to add to his increasingly impressive stats acquired to date.
He clearly prefers the A/W (6/25) to the turf (0/5) and he has won 6 of 22 A/W handicaps to date, of which he’s 6/19 at this 5f trip, 5/17 on Polytrack, 5/11 when priced at 11/2 or shorter and 3 from 7 over course and distance.
Yes, he could have had a kinder draw and he could possibly have done without a 3lb weight rise, but the 2nd, 4th and 5th placed horses from his last run have all since won whilst he has been resting and if the form holds out, the currently available 6/1 BOG about Dynamo Walt could prove very generous indeed.
There is, of course, the possibility he’ll be rusty and might fall victim to a strong pace, which would suit Doctor Sardonicus to the ground, as he loves to get on with things early doors. His trainer David Simcock is 7/25 in the last fortnight and 6/30 here at this track this year, whilst jockey Jamie Spencer has ridden 15 winners from 77 in the last month and has a 19.8% strike rate (58/293) on the Simcock horses since 2010.
Doctor Sardonicus has finished 133 this season, all over 6f on A/W (1st & 3rd here at Chelmsford) and having been caught late on in each of his last two runs, a drop back to 5f should be helpful in a bid to hold on today. It’s possible he’ll have needed a run last time out after a 12-week break and with a tendency to front run allied to his proven stamina, a bet at 7/2 BOG looks good.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Good Contact / Doctor Sardonicus @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : generally)
Good Contact / Dynamo Walt @ 23.5/1 (5/2 & 6/1 : Coral & Hills)
Hakka / Doctor Sardonicus @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Totesport)
Hakka / Dynamo Walt @ 29.33/1 (10/3 & 6/1 : Ladbrokes)