Stat of the Day, 28th September 2015
Wow! That was a close call on Saturday, wasn’t it?
Don’t get me wrong, it was a welcome win after the recent spell of poor form/luck/what have you, but Chicadoro certainly didn’t do much for my nerves at Haydock.
She got out quickly and made all under an enterprising ride from Oisin Murphy who made sure he rode her all the way to line as needed (unlike several of our near misses of late) and he certainly earned his fee, as they hung on to repel a flying finisher to land the race by a short head at 3/1, a half point shorter than advised.
It was the perfect end to a difficult week and although we’re still in the red for September (my weekly update will be up around lunchtime), it does renew hope of a good finish to a tough month.
That finish will improve dramatically if we land the winner of the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Time is against me this evening for a number of (all very dull!) reasons, so I’m going to keep it short and sweet. I would, however, reiterate that no matter how long/short my posts are, the same amount of time/effort has gone into them. In fact, Mondays usually take longer, due to the lack of quality of racing.
Anyway, this race is a Class 6, 1m2f, 3yo+ handicap on good to firm ground, where I’m backing Royal Roslea at 4/1 BOG, as she drops down in class in a bid to improve upon a 0.75 lengths defeat last time out.
Royal Roslea is a 3yr old filly trained by Marcus Tregoning and the first thing that drew me to her was the fact that since the start of the 2008 campaign, Marcus’ Flat handicappers are 84/489 (17.2% SR) for 123.2pts (+25.2% ROI). Those numbers alone are enough for me to be interested in any of his handicappers and if his stats fit a selected race’s conditions, even better.
So, let’s look at those 489 runners in respect of this particular race…
- 43/261 (16.5% SR) for 123.4pts (47.3% ROI) at 1m to 1m3f
- 45/258 (17.4% SR) for 75.4pts (29.2% ROI) with 3yr olds
- 37/204 (18.1% SR) for 131.9pts (64.7% ROI) on Good to Firm
- 34/183 (18.6% SR) for 67.9pts (37.1% ROI) in 3yo+ handicaps
- 30/145 (20.7% SR) for 54.8pts (37.8% ROI) with female runners
- 15/78 (19.2% SR) for 30.4pts (39% ROI) dropping down a class
- 11/66 (16.7% SR) for21.7pts (32.9% ROI) at Class 6
- 12/43 (27.9% SR) for 10.4pts (24.1% ROI) here at Bath.
The above eight angles can be mixed and matched to make successful microsystems, but constraints of time mean I can’t do those for you on this occasion.
You can see that there’s profit to be made from the Tregoning ‘cappers at every facet of this contest and throw in the fact that Royal Roslea was a course and distance winner here two starts ago makes her of massive interest to me again today.
I am mildly concerned that there’s a large field going to post, but that probably adds a little to her price, which is a widely available 4/1 BOG. I’ve gone with Coral, just in case we get narrowly beaten (they refund on defeats of a head or less), but you can choose your own bookie, when you…
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