Double Dutch, 28th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th September 2015

Saturday was another frustrating crossber-rattling day as we once again paired a runner-up with a winner to fall just short. Close but no cigar, as the American saying goes.

At Chelmsford, Doctor Sardonicus was backed as though defeat was impossible (13/8 from 7/2) and he duly obliged, scoring comfortably by a length and a quarter easing right down.

Unfortunately, Hakka had already lost by that same margin at Chester, getting caught and passed deep inside the final furlong to deny us an 18.5/1 success.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Hakka : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 10/3)
Good Contact : 5th at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Doctor Sardonicus : WON at 13/8 (adv 7/2)
Dynamo Walt : 6th at 8/1 (adv 6/1)

Results to date:
684 winning selections from 2440 = 28.03%
217 winning bets in 633 days = 34.28%

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Stakes: 1265.00pts
Returns: 1379.15pts
P/L : +114.15pts (+9.02% ROI)


Tricky start to the new week…

3.00 Newton Abbot :

There are question marks about most here, but if Sykes is able to run well fresh (off the track for 11 months), then this lightly raced 6yo gelding will be the one to beat at 2/1 BOG. This will be just his third start under Rules (also finished as a runner-up and a winner in 3 PTP races) and when last seen was a winner over hurdles at Worcester.

Ability and stamina are already proven in his brief career, he’s unexposed with very few miles on the clock. Both trainer (Hobbs) and jockey (Johnson) have good records at this course and if rustiness doesn’t strike, Sykes is the likeliest to prevail for me.

The 7/2 BOG Chantara Rose, on the other hand, has never won a race in seven attempts (4 x NHF, 3 x hrds), but has proved a consistent sort, finishing second on four occasions and third in another. She was deemed good enough to run in a Listed bumper on just her second start, but struggled on the heavy ground. She doesn’t “get” heavy, though in fairness, as her two unplaced efforts are her two heavy ground starts.

Team Bowen are in good nick of late with the trainer/jockey combo winning two of five in the last week together and jockey Sean is 3 from 7 over hurdles on this track this year and with Chantara Rose making a belated handicap debut off a very reasonable mark of 107 today, this could finally be her day.


3.40 Bath :

Despite being very green on debut, the penny started to drop late in the contest for Calvinist on debut at Salisbury over a mile, 17 days ago. He came from way off the pace to finish really well achieving fourth place in the process. He shaped as though today’s extra two furlongs would suit him better and he should come on for having had the run.

The third placed horse (Albe Back) has since been placed again off a mark of 77 (see below), suggesting it was a decent enough race that Calvinist faced on debut and with his trainer (Meehan) having a 29% strike rate at this venue since 2010 (18/62 and 11 winners from 31 in maidens!), you’d have to take him very seriously at 9/4 BOG.

Of the rest, Press Gang shaded it for me this morning. He was runner-up at this trip at Kempton last time out on his third start, so he should know what today is all about, even if he was well beaten that day. In fairness, he was hampered badly early on and lost lots of ground, but was in the process of running a big finish from way off the pace to grab second after the winner had already flown.

He was two lengths ahead of Albe Back (see above), who was rated (OR) at 77 and with the tougher uphill finish here allied to Richard Hannon’s record here at Bath (11/54 and 8 from 17 from those who finished in the first three home LTO), 4/1 BOG might actrually be a little generous about the true chance of Press Gang, especially on collateral form with the favourite.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sykes / Calvinist @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Hills & Paddy Power)
Sykes / Press Gang @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Coral)
Chantara Rose / Calvinist @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Coral)
Chantara Rose / Press Gang @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1 : Coral)

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