Stat of the Day, 29th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2015

Royal Roslea didn’t run badly at all on Monday and gave us a decent run for our money at 4/1. Unfortunately she became the latest placer in a month where too many have made the frame without going on to win.

She had every chance entering the final furlong, but lacked the killer burst of pace and we had to settle for third place at our advised 4/1 odds.

We do, however, still have two more chances this month and although Tuesday looks very tricky, I’m expecting a decent effort from one in the…

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where I’ve taken 3/1 BOG about Tim Vaughan’s lightly raced 7 yr old gelding Jimmy Shan.

Mr Vaughan doesn’t send too many runners here to Southwell, but since 2008, his sub-10/1 handicappers are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 21pts (+46.6% ROI) profit with those running at Class 4 winning 9 of 25 (36% SR) for 23.9pts (+95.6% ROI), of which those priced at 2/1 to 6/1 are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 19.6pts (+140% ROI).

Jimmy Shan has only made three starts over hurdles and has finished 323, having raced here over course and distance last time out to finish third 27 days ago. That was his first run for 223 days since failing over fences at Warwick and was his first effort over hurdles for some 405 days. As a result, he was entitled to need that run earlier in the month and should strip fitter for it.

The ground is better here today and he has already demonstrated a preference for good ground and his cause is helped further by a 3lb ease in weight. He led until three out last time, but stamina shouldn’t be an issue, now he’s had the pipe-opener. He has finished third in two races over this trip and a record of a win and two places from four Irish PTP runs shows he’ll get the three miles here.

This now becomes his second run inside a month after that 32-week layoff and Tim Vaughan’s Class 3 to 5 handicappers making their second appearance in a 90-day window are 80/457 (17.5% SR) for 71.9pts (+15.7% ROI), with those 457 runners broken down as follows…

  • males are 72/397 (18.1% SR) for 72.4pts (+18.2% ROI)
  • 6 to 8 yr olds are 61/294 (20.8% SR) for 111.8pts (+38% ROI)
  • top 5 finishers LTO are 61/253 (24.1% SR) for 45pts (+17.8% ROI)
  • those who last ran 26 to 45 days ago are 24/126 (19.1% SR) for 88.4pts (+70.2% ROI)
  • those running over three miles are 12/48 (25% SR) for 51.2pts (+106.7% ROI)

Combining the above creates a dataset too small to be conclusive in my opinion, but a slight relaxing of the parameters gives the following…6 to 8 yr old males who finished in the top 7 LTO, 26 to 60 days ago are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 60.9pts (+90.9% ROI), of which the three-milers are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 12.9pts (+107.4% ROI).

My 3/1 BOG on Jimmy Shan is with Coral, but with at least three other firms matching that price, you’re advised to…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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