Double Dutch, 29th September 2015

Double Dutch, 29th September 2015

Just like Saturday, Monday saw us come frustratingly close to landing our double with another winner/runner-up combo.

Once again race 1 let us down, as Sykes was unavble to reel in Jigsaw Financial, who just managed to hold on by a length, helped no doubt by carrying 15lbs less than our pick.

This, of course, meant hat race 2 was purely academic, but personal pride was at stake, plus every race offers up the possibility of the bonus forecast/exacta. Anyway, Calvinist won quite easily by 5 lengths, eassing down towards the finish, but Press Gang couldn’t grab me the runner-up berth, missing out by a length and a quarter back in third place.

So, day of near misses all round!

Monday’s results were as follows:

Sykes : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Chantara Rose : 7th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Calvinist : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Press Gang : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
685 winning selections from 2444 = 28.03%
217 winning bets in 634 days = 34.23%

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Stakes: 1267.00pts
Returns: 1379.15pts
P/L : +112.15pts (+8.85% ROI)


One early and one late for Tuesday…

1.40 Ayr :

Weld al Khawaneej got going too late last time out, but caught the eye with a rousing finish over 6f in a big field (20 ran!) at Redcar just six days ago. He was, in fairness, denied a clear run in the melee you often get in these races of so many runners and he was doing all his best work late on. I think the smaller field size (13 go today) and the extra furlong mean that an adoption of the same tactics as last week could well prove successful here this afternoon.

Trainer Kevin Ryan won this race last year, so he’ll be keen to retain it and today’s jockey Fergal Lynch was onboard that day too and Weld al Khawaneej is priced up at 7/2 BOG to follow suit. He’s also Kevin’s only runner at the track and since 2010, his runners appearing on their own at a track are 197/1160 (17% SR) for 711.5pts (+61.3% ROI).

Planetaria, on the other hand was a winner of a big-field nursery on that same Redcar card 6 days ago, bravely making all to beat the nearest of his 18 rivals by a length. He might have been harshly treated to land a 6lb penalty, but does drop back in trip by a furlong in an attempt to counteract the extra demands on his stamina here.

That win at Redcar for was his first for new trainer Garry Moss, who doesn’t have too many horses at his disposal, but is 9/31 (29% SR) for 68.9pts (+222.4% ROI) on the Flat in the last year, of which his handicappers are 8/25 (32%SR) for 54.6pts (+218.3% ROI), making Planetaria of obvious interest here at 5/1 BOG.


8.40 Wolverhampton :

Ivan Furtado’s first season as a trainer has gone brilliantly so far with 12 winners from 53 runners (22.6% SR) that have already produced level stakes profits of 13.9pts at an ROI of 26.3%, but even more impressively in the context of this contest, his runners in Class 5/6 handicaps are 11/25 (44% SR) for 39.7pts (+158.7% ROI).

This has to make Monopoli of more than just a passing interest at 7/2 BOG, despite the 6yr old mare getting turned over as a favourite last time out (Leicester, 3 weeks ago). That run was over 1m2f like most of her starts to date, but whilst generally running very consistently (placed in half her races), the trip has always seemed too short, as she gets beat for pace late on. A switch to Tapeta and a step up to 1m4f might well be the key for Monopoli, but…

…it is a little bit of guesswork, hence her price and a more solid option is available in the shape of the 15/8 BOG favourite San Quentin, whose last run was a course and distance success a fortnight ago, where despite only winning by a length and a quarter, actually looked pretty comfortable in staying on strongly and a 4lb rise in weight shouldn’t be enough to anchor him here.

In fact, off a mark as low as 50, there’s probably still quite a bit more to come and with his yard coming back into a bit of form, San Quentin gets the nod from me here.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Weld al Khawaneej / San Quentin @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Weld al Khawaneej / Monopoli @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Generally)
Planetaria / San Quentin @ 16.25/1 (5/1 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Planetaria / Monopoli @ 29/1 (5/1 & 4/1 : Coral)

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