Stat of the Day, 30th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2015

I really thought Jimmy Shan was going to hold on and make all at Southwell and he’d jumped impeccably at the head of affairs until making a bit of a mess at the last.

He lost all momentum after the poor jump and a two length lead quickly turned into a two length deficit. Full marks to horse and jockey for rallying to have another go, but they lost the contest in that split second.

The end result was a runner-up finish, beaten by a length and a quarter at a very short 7/4, quite a way lower than our 3/1 advised odds. In fairness, he ran like a 7/4 shot until that error and if anything the last jump is the worst one to get wrong.

It puts paid to my faint hope of clearing a profit from September, but I still hope to go out on a high with the winner of Wednesday’s…

8.10 Kempton :

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Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where Charlie Appleby’s 2yr old colt, Carrington seems a touch overpriced at 11/2 BOG to me for this Class 3, 7 furlong nursery.

Charlie Appleby has to be considered one of the masters of the A/W handicap and I’ve few reservations about backing him pretty much blindly, thanks to a 1-in-3 strike rate (65 winners from 195 runners) that has generated 27.8pts profit at betfair SP, a return of 14.3% above stakes invested and a figure that whilst already decent can be bettered by use of the BOG bookie.

I know that most of you aren’t too keen on blanket backing a trainer’s runners and like to be more selective, so with today’s race in mind, here’s how those 195 runners stack up…

  • those priced at 13/8 to 8/1 are 42/138 (30.4% SR) for 38.95pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • those running 6 to 25 days since their last run are 35/80 (43.75% SR) for 31.9pts (+39.9% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 10.1pts (+23% ROI)

All three are nice profitable angles and I should probably add at this point the fact that here at Kempton, those handicappers are 20/67 (29.9% SR) for 10.8pts (+12% ROI).

I kept that one back,because I want to look at Charlie’s runners here in a little more detail. (dotting the i and crossing the t, so to speak). To which end, these 67 Kempton handicappers are…

  • 16/48 (33.33% SR) from male runners producing 12.84pts at 26.8% ROI.
  • those running after a 6 to 25 day break are 13/31 (41.9% SR) for 13.91pts (+44.9% ROI)
  • those competing at 7f to 1m are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 12pts (+46.1% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 6.45pts (+38% ROI)
  • those ridden by today’s jockey William Buick are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 5.86pts (+34.4% ROI)

I know some of you like a little composite microsystem from my filtering, so here goes…Charlie Appleby’s male Kempton A/W handicappers running over 6f to a mile, 6 to 45 days after their last run are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 12.8pts at an ROI of 55.5%. From this 2yr olds are 4/8 for 3pts and William Buick is 4/6 for 9.2pts.

And that’s why I’ve taken my 11/2 BOG on Carrington with Coral. Betway are currently offering the same price (but won’t go BOG until 10 in the morning) and there’s plenty of 5/1 BOG around, so why not…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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