Double Dutch, 1st October 2015

Double Dutch, 1st October 2015

September was, on the whole, a pretty good month for DD and its followers, making just over 14pts profit, but I didn’t half end the month with a stinker.

Buoyed by Tuesday’s success, I really thought we’d a good chance of back to back wins, but my confidence was sadly misplaced with the four runners finishing 3rd, 5th, 8th and 11th on a day I’d rather forget happened and move straight on!

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Mr Frankie : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Our Queenie : 5th at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Pacolita : 8th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Top Offer : 11th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
687 winning selections from 2452 = 28.02%
218 winning bets in 636 days = 34.28%

Stakes: 1271.00pts
Returns: 1385.62pts
P/L : +114.62pts (+9.02% ROI)


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New month = clean slate and first up for us are these…

3.15 Warwick :

Badgers Retreat was only beaten by a head here over course and distance last time out, as he stayed on strongly from well off the pace and would have been the winner a couple of strides later. Ifs and buts are all well and good, but it was a strong performance and he’s now turned out again just nine days later before a 4lb rise in weight kicks in.

He gets to run off the same mark as last time out and with having had that C&D experience, can be expected to go one better today under a jockey that has a 25% strike rate at the venue (7/28). We’re not getting rich if Badgers Retreat wins at 15/8 BOG, but as half of a double, those odds are just about palatable.

The main challenge is expected to come from Jackthejourneyman, who was last seen a month ago winning by four lengths over fences at Huntingdon. He was pretty comfortable in victory that day and it’s probably a combination of a 7lb weight rise and a step up in trip that has pushed him out to 5/2 BOG this morning.

James Davies retains the ride from last time and it’s worth noting that over the last 5 years, 6 yr old male Class 4 Handicap chasers who won LTO by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago are 28/80 (35% SR) for 32.63pts (+40.8% ROI), adding a little more interest to the selection of Jackthejourneyman.


7.45 Chelmsford :

Despite a poor day yesterday at Kempton (0/4), the Charlie Appleby/William Buick combination is generally a potent one and remains in good form and in Second Wave, they’ve got a real chance of getting back to winning ways tonight. The horse was a winner on each of his first two starts (both at Redcar) and has been on the premises to two decent placed finishes since stepping up to this grade taking his career record to 1132, which means he’s bringing the best form to the table.

He has a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance and is an interest convert to the A/W after those four runs, as Charlie Appleby’s horses switching to A/W for the first time after 5 or fewer turf runs are 32/108 (29.6% SR), of which they are 4 from 9 here at Chelmsford, suggesting a big run from Second Wave at 15/8 BOG tonight.

Pactolus looks to be the most interesting of his challengers here and can be backed at 5/1 BOG in places. He has won two of his last five starts, including a course and distance success last time out. That was under today’s jockey on his first run at this track that took his A/W record to 3 from 7.

He beat Monsieur Chevalier by a length that day (9 days ago) and that runner-up turned back out on Tuesday and won at Redcar, so if the form holds out, trainer Stuart Williams could have another winner to improve his 5yr A/W hcp strike rate of 18.23% (76/417), if Pactolus comes here in the same mood as last week.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Badgers Retreat / Second Wave @ 6.92/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Badgers Retreat / Pactolus @ 14.84/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Coral & Paddy Power)
Jackthejourneyman / Second Wave @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Jackthejourneyman / Pactolus @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Betfair SB)

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