Double Dutch, 2nd October 2015

Double Dutch, 2nd October 2015

Winners at 11/8 and 11/10 combining for an SP double at 3.99/1 is hardly the stuff of retirements dreams and although we managed to get 173% of SP, by securing BOG odds of 15/8 and 7/4 for a double at 6.92/1, I suspect that that we’re all back at work again today!

Nevertheless, it’s a decent start to the new month and it adds another couple of points to our bottom line, thanks to two winners who weren’t quite as comfortable as their very short odds would have suggested.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Badgers Retreat : WON at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
Jackthejourneyman : 4th at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Second Wave : WON at 11/10 (adv 7/4)
Pactolus : 5th at 11/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
689 winning selections from 2456 = 28.05%
219 winning bets in 637 days = 34.38%

Stakes: 1273.00pts
Returns: 1389.58pts
P/L : +116.58pts (+9.16% ROI)


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I’ll look to build on October’s good start with these…

3.40 Hexham :

David Pipe’s 6yr old Skylander looks the one to beat here provided, of course, that he takes to fences at the first time of asking. Impressively progressive over hurdles of late and was last seen winning at Newton Abbot a fortnight ago. There’s no concerns over trip and ground conditions and it’s no surprise to see him installed as the 9/4 BOG favourite.

Team Pipe are in great form of late (39.6% SR below odds of 6/1 in the last month) and have a good record with first time chasers. Good to see Tom Scudamore in the saddle, for he rides the Pipe horses well and you just know Skylander will have been really well schooled for this one.

There doesn’t seem to be much between his rivals, but the low weight carried by Brother Scott might just prove decisive today. He carries just 10-3 here today (top weight is 11-8) and his jockey takes a further 5lbs off!

He comes here off the back of a course and distance win a fortnight ago whilst carrying 11-12, so he might feel a little unburdened today off this lower weight. His trainer’s horses are 4 from 9 in the last fortnight and they landed this race last year and Brother Scott is rated as a 5/1 BOG shot to follow suit.


4.00 Ascot :

If I’ve successfully navigated a tricky race 1, then the second contest looks a little (only a little!) more straightforward, I hope! I agree with the current market that this is likely to be between Pin Up and Secateur, so let’s briefly look at each in alphabetical order.

Pin Up is to be ridden by the in-form Ryan Moore (4/17 in the last week and an 18.8% SR at this track ocver the last four years from over 200 rides!) and this 3 yre old has been consistently good this Flat season, finishing in the first three home in all five starts (32121), including a victory on her first crack at today’s trip up at Haydock almost 4 weeks ago.

She was game in battle that day, prevailing by just a nose on good to soft ground and it is hoped that this slightly quicker ground aided by the urgings of Ryan Moore might just bring a little more from her. If you like her, you can back Pin Up at 2/1 BOG this morning.

My (slight) personal preference, however, is for the 13/8 BOG favourite Secateur, who may well have been beaten by almost 7 lengths in that same race at Haydock, but comes here 10lbs better off. The BHA handicap guide says that at 1m6f, a pound is worth 1.25 lengths, so all things being equal Secateur should be 12.5 lengths better today from a 7 lengths defeat.

I’m aware that it doesn’t always pan out that way, but it has to be in his favour here. John Gosden’s runners are 5/15 in the last week, Frankie Dettori is 5 from 12 in the same period and having a really good season and neither going nor the trip should be Secateur‘s undoing today.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Skylander / Secateur @ 6.88/1 (2/1 & 13/8 : generally)
Skylander / Pin Up @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Brother Scott / Secateur @ 14.75/1 (5/1 & 13/8 : generally)
Brother Scott / Pin Up @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : generally)

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