Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2015
Marc Monaghan gave Kalon Brama a great ride at Chelmsford on Thursday evening on her bid to land a hat-trick. He kept her handy, just a couple of places off the lead poised to pounce.
When he got alongside the long-time leader with two furlongs to run, it was clear that we were in the box seat and it ended up being a pretty comfortable win in the end, as she scored by over two lengths at 2/1, a full point shorter than advised.
This means we’re up and running for October and now we move away from the A/W for Friday’s selection and it’s jumps action on the figure of eight in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Which is a Class 2, 2m 1.5f, handicap chase for 4yr olds and upwards on good ground, where I’ve just taken 3/1 BOG about David Pipe’s 6yr old gelding Purple n Gold who seeks to continue a recent run of fine form.
In the last 30 days, Mr Pipe’s runners have won 12 of their 42 races (28.6% SR) generating level stakes profits of 12.8pts (+30.5% ROI) in the process and the market is often a very good indicator of his runners’ true chances. Of those 42 runners in the past month, 28 of them have gone off at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 producing 11 winners (39.3% SR) and 24.86pts (+88.8% ROI) profit.
David also has a good record in chases here around Fontwell’s quirky figure of eight track, despite not sending many runners here. In fact, since 2008, there have been just 24 Pipe chasers at Fontwell, but 7 winners (29.2% SR) and 5.9pts (+24.6% ROI) profit are healthy returns.
Of those 24 chasers, there’s a 5/17 (29.4% SR) record in handicaps yielding 4.68pts (+27.5% ROI) and at odds of 7/4 to 9/2 the chasers are 7 from 16 (43.8% SR) for 13.9pts (+86.9% ROI).
David Pipe’s Fontwell handicap chasers priced at 7/4 to 9/2 are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 12.68pts (+86.9% ROI) since 2008.
Purple n Gold possesses decent ground speed, having won 3 of 10 starts on the Flat, before proving his jumping prowess via three hurdles victories but his recent switch to the bigger obstacles has shown him in an even better light, winning two of three starts (finished 131) and now comes here up 6lbs in the ratings (OR) for a win last time out at Worcester a week ago.
He has, however, got a decent 7lb claimer (D Noonan) on his back and the jockey is quite highly rated in some quarters and not only has he ridden Purple n Gold to one win and one place from three outings, he has two wins and a runner-up finish over the Fontwell fences from three efforts, all for Anthony Honeyball, who doesn’t employ mugs.
That win a week ago also puts this runner into another area that I keep an eye on with the Pipe string and basically you want a David Pipe handicapper aged 5 to 9 who won last time out in the past 7 days and has had at least one other run in the past three months. Such runners don’t crop up too often (5 or 6 a year!), but 25 winners from 43 (58.1% SR) and profits of 51pts (+118.7% ROI) suggests they worth looking out for!
The odds quoted are widely available and I’m going with Bet365 for my 3/1 BOG bet, but for your preferred bookie’s price, simply…
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