Double Dutch, 3rd October 2015

Double Dutch, 3rd October 2015

It was the ol’ 1-2/2-3 yesterday as relatively unconsidered Mill Springs cut down Secateur (sorry for the pun). Things had started well enough, though unexcitingly, when 6/4 favourite, Skylander, had prevailed at Hexham. Our 2/1 meant we were ahead of the play, and looking at possible 7/1 or 8/1 doubles.

Sadly, it wasn’t to be, and we move on to a devilish Saturday with top class sport aplenty.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Skylander : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Brother Scott : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Secateur : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 13/8)
Pin Up : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
690 winning selections from 2460 = 28.05%
219 winning bets in 638 days = 34.33%

Stakes: 1275.00pts
Returns: 1389.58pts
P/L : +114.58pts (+8.99% ROI)


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Saturday looks like this…

2.10 Fontwell:

A three horse race on paper between Benissimo, Mercers Court and Le Legro. With the last named having his first start for Charlie Mann, 0 from 5 at the track in the last five years with trainer swaps, and only 2 from 40 anywhere during that time, the vote goes to the other pair.

Benissimo represents the upwardly mobile Dan Skelton, and has plenty of talent himself as a BHA rating of 122 shows. However, he is quirky, and managed to get beaten at 1/10 (!) last time out. The quicker ground is an unknown, but plenty of Beneficial’s go on good, so he ought to handle that. He’s also the clear fastest horse in the race and likely to make his own running.

If he fails to fire, we have Mercers Court, representing Neil King and Tom Whelan. Like Skelton, King has a very good record at the track and is in good recent form. Like Benissimo, Mercers Court also has a BHA rating of 122. But, unlike the favourite, he is proven on quicker ground and could appreciate the step back to two and a half miles, a trip over which he’s won previously.


3.30 Newmarket :

From a novice hurdle to a Group 1 flat race, that is the spectrum of Saturday racing at this time of year, and praise be for that!

This fillies’ mile race is very high class, as you’d expect, and there looks to be every chance of last year’s first and fourth fighting out the finish. Integral won last year, but she’s not been in quite the same form this term, despite a promising seasonal debut in the Lockinge, where she was a close up fourth.

She followed that up at Royal Ascot with a disappointing fifth of sixth in a Group 2, and though that form has worked out well, we’ve not seen Sir Michael Stoute’s mare since. Talented as she unquestionably is, she comes here with something to prove.

By contrast, Esoterique has bounded from strength to strength this term. Andre Fabre’s five year old bids to become the fifth French-trained winner of the race since 2009, and her form is exceptional. A winner of a Group 1 on very soft ground last time – against the boys – she had previously run second to top male sprinter, Muhaarar, over a trip short of her best, and top miler, Solow, both in G1’s.

She will be fine on the quick ground and looks a most solid favourite.

The fly in the ointment is another French filly, Bawina, though she’s been beaten twice in lower grade in Blighty this year.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Benissimo / Integral @ 8.9/1 (6/5 & 7/2 : bet365)
Benissimo / Esoterique @ 9/2 (6/5 & 6/4 : bet365)
Mercers Court / Integral @ 5.875/1 (7/4 & 6/4 : BetVictor)
Mercers Court / Esoterique @ 11.375/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : PP)

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