Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2015
No complaints from me about yesterday’s pick, Purple n Gold. I thought he acquitted himself well in what promised to be a competitive contest. As it was, it turned out to be a two horse race!
He led until just before the last, from which point he was headed and outpaced to the tune of eight lengths by Workbench who was impressive late on, it has to be said.
Second at 7/2 was no disgrace there and the fact that we beat the rest of the field of 25 lengths or more says it was a decent run.
Same venue today for a second crack at this course via Saturday’s
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
We’re a little later than usual with Saturday’s selection, I’m afraid. As many of you will know, Matt and I are in Paris for Arc weekend and I spent most of Friday afternoon/evening travelling, hence the delay!
Today’s race is a Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3f on good ground, where the selection is Nick Williams’ 5yr old gelding After Eight Sivola, who was a winner last time out and looked to have plenty in hand, albeit six months ago at Wincanton, and is a 5/1 BOG shot to follow up.
Nick Williams’ NH record in the “winter season” (ie Oct-Apr) since the start of 2009 with horses aged 4 to 7 who’ve made 10 or less starts for him is 79 winners from 409 runners (19.3% SR) for 173.9pts (+42.5% ROI). This is a nice little microsystem I use and it only generates around 65 to 70 bets a year.
65 to 70 might still be too many, so with time in mind and today’s contest as a guideline, here’s how the 409 runners are broken down…
- 2m to 2m4f : 54/283 (19.1% SR) for 157.1pts (55.5% ROI)
- hurdlers : 45/247 (18.2% SR) for 87.9pts (+35.6% ROI)
- handicaps : 35/187 (18.7% SR) for 72.7pts (+38.9% ROI)
- 5yr olds : 32/156 (20.5% SR) for 79.8pts (+51.2% ROI)
- Nick’s only runner at the track : 33/147 (22.5% SR) for 161pts (+109.6% ROI)
- his only runner of the day : 24/115 (20.9% SR) for 82.5pts (+71.8% ROI)
- won LTO : 21/83 (25.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+30.3% ROI)
- Class 2 : 11/59 (18.6% SR) for 26.5pts (+44.8% ROI)
- at Fontwell : 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 8.2pts (+117.3% ROI)
Of course, all the above fit After Eight Sivola‘s entry today and Paddy Power offer the best price in town at 5/1 BOG (Ladbrokes too, but non-BOG until 9.00am), whilst 9/2 BOG is widely available, so I suggest that you…
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