Double Dutch, 5th October 2015
I spent much of Friday afternoon/evening travelling, meaning time was short on Saturday. So Matt kindly stepped into the breech for DD, whilst I concentrated on picking a 6/1 winner for SotD!
Not that DD was neglected though, as Matt weighed with a nice double for you from a tricky day’s cards and although we’re not getting too rich off a 5.88/1 double, it keeps the wheel turning and had Integral managed to hold on in the Sun Chariot, we’d have been looking at 12.75/1.
Integral, however, couldn’t hold on and was beaten by half a length by Esoterique, but forecast backers were rewarded with a 5.6/1 return from that bet, so a pretty decent day all round (SotD/DD treble backers had a 47/1 win!)
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Mercers Court : WON at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Benissimo : 2nd at 5/6 (adv 6/5)
Esoterique : WON at 11/8 (adv 6/4)
Integral : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
The forecast paid £6.60 here.
Results to date:
692 winning selections from 2464 = 28.08%
220 winning bets in 639 days = 34.43%
P/L : +116.02pts (+9.09% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We kick off a new week with…
The two form horses are, somewhat unsurprisingly, at the head of the market and I’m fully expecting one of them to win this and quite possibly bring home the forecast too.
Wintour Leap (2/1 BOG) has plenty of potential as an improving 4yr old and has got better with each run over hurdles so far. She has finished 221 in her last three efforts and seems more at home at these shorter trips, having previously shown she stays 1m7.5f on the flat.
She’s up 7lbs for a win at Worcester last time out, but she was far more comfortable than a 1.25 length winning margin would duggest. She looked to have plenty in hand and only took the lead with 100 yards to go, but was easing further clear late on. The runner-up, Cruise In Style, won next time out and Wintour Leap has every chance of following suit.
The 9yr old Grimley Girl (11/4 BOG) is the potential fly in the ointment after a run of consistently good efforts over the last year. She returned to action on the 6th October last year and since then has finished 3212212 in seven handicap hurdle contests over 2m to 2m1f and she’s a former course and distance winner.
Stat followers will be pleased to learn that Henry Oliver’s handicap hurdlers are profitable to back blindly (25/104 for 65.6pts) and all things considered, I expect yet another good run from Grimley Girl today.
Aussie Andre may well have only won on Kempton’s polytrack to date, but he’s 2 from 3 at 1m4f and was by no means disgraced on his latest turf defeat. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length at Ascot that day with the both the 3rd and 4th placed runners going on to win next time out, the form of that race looks pretty decent.
Trainer Jeremy Noseda is 15/64 (23.4% SR) in handicaps here since 2008, of which today’s jockey Jimmy Fortune has four winners from five and if you think they can land another winner here today, you can currently get odds of up to 100/30 BOG about Aussie Andre.
The alternate to that proposition is the 7/2 BOG Sweet P, who has been carefully looked after by Marcus Tregoning this season, having raced on just two occasions. That said, she has won both and at trips of 10f and 12.5f, today’s distance shouldn’t be an issue for her.
She’s 3/6 in handicaps, 3/4 in a hood, 1/1 here at Windsor and 1/1 under today’s jockey suggesting we should at least get a good run for our money from Sweet P today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Wintour Leap / Aussie Andre @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Hills)
Wintour Leap / Sweet P @ 12.5/1 (2/1 & 7/2, Betfred, Betway & Totesport)
Grimley Girl / Aussie Andre @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Hills)
Grimley Girl / Sweet P @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Betfair SB & SkyBet)