Double Dutch, 6th October 2015

Double Dutch, 6th October 2015

Sweet P made all at Windsor yesterday and was in such command thsat she was able to ease right down and still win by almost two lengths, making my 7/2 pick look a very good idea.

Unfortunately, the double had already gone as we could only manage 4th and 5th in a disappointing race at Market Rasen

Monday’s results were as follows:

Wintour Leap : 4th at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
Grimley Girl : 5th at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Sweet P : WON at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Aussie Andre : 4th at 10/3 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
693 winning selections from 2468 = 28.08%
220 winning bets in 640 days = 34.38%

Stakes: 1279.00pts
Returns: 1393.02pts
P/L : +115.02pts (+8.9% ROI)

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Tuesday will hopefully pan out as follows…

2.20 Brighton :

Beatbybeatbybeat comes here in good heart and has improved in each of her 3 runs to date finishing 11th and then 4th before getting her head in front close home to land a 7f Redcar maiden a fortnight ago. Further improvement is expected as she now goes handicapping for the first time off a mark of 74, which looks very workable and is further aided by the 3lb claim of the very capable Thomas Brown.

Trainer Ismail Mohammed is 29/186 (15.6% SR) for 63.7pts (+34.3% ROI) profit in flat handicaps in the UK and with his LTO winners winning again 8 times from 22 (22.2% SR), Beatbybeatbybeat would have to be on your shortlist at 5/2 BOG.

Secret Ambition (4/1 BOG) has a few more races under the belt, having raced seven times already. In fairness, he’s still a maiden after those 7 runs, but has performed well on several occasions in defeat and I’m aware that could well be the case today, but he does look the best of the rest, so to speak.

In his favour should be a step up in trip and a first visit to Brighton, as his trainer Mark Johnston is 23 from 101 (22.7% SR) here over the last 8 seasons and also has a good record when stepping handicappers up in trip during their first five handicap runs. We all know about Joe Fanning’s record on the Johnston string and that adds another layer of reassurance to the choice of Secret Ambition today.


3.40 Leicester :

Where I fancy Melvin The Grate (15/8 BOG) to go one better than the narrow (head) defeat he suffered at Ayr 17 days ago. In fairness, he ran really well that day and was possibly unlucky to bump into a very progessive Hannon 3yr old who was winning for the 3rd time in 7 races.

He was also undone by a lack of early pace in the race, but with at least one obvious front runner here, things should be different today. David Probert rides Melvin The Grate today and he’s 3 from 11 on this horse in handicaps overall and has also won 4 of 12 handicap rides for Andrew Balding here at Leicester.

You’re Fired is the one I’d take to chase him home at 7/2 BOG. In fairness, he’s probably as high in the weights as you’d want him to be, but has been running creditably in defeat against better horses of late. In fact, he came within a neck of landing an 18-runner Listed contest at York in the summer and a repeat of that run would be more than enough.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Beatbybeatbybeat / Melvin The Grate @ 8.36/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Betway)
Beatbybeatbybeat / You’re Fired @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Stan James)
Secret Ambition / Melvin The Grate @ 11.96/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Betway)
Secret Ambition / You’re Fired @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Stan James)

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