Stat of the Day, 6th October 2015
We took 11/2 BOG about Stardrifter yesterday and that was looking like a good piece of business as he went as low as 7/2. Then the rain fell and the good to firm ground, I’d based much of my work on, was gone. Jockeys said it was riding on the soft side of good and this did seem to affect our runner.
He drifted back out to an SP matching our advised 11/2 and although he ran his race, he never looked really settled/happy on the softer ground and eventually succumbed to a two length defeat back in fifth place.
No qualms at all with the way Jack Garrity rode the Fahey horse, which is just as well as I’m sticking with them for the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Where the call is a bet at 5/2 BOG on Early Bird, who comes here attempting to get off the mark at the fifth time of asking, having finished 4342 so far. This 2yr old filly’s best run to date was when finishing second last time out at Musselburgh, beaten by just three quarters of a length.
That was her first crack at this 5f trip and although she was headed inside the final furlong, she was conceding 12lbs to the overall winner and she can be expected to come on for having tried the trip.
Trainer Richard Fahey’s record here at Catterick with fancied runners is good, with 32 winners from the 83 runners (38.6% SR) priced at 4/1 and shorter since 2008 and these runners have generated level stakes profits of 38.5pts at an ROI of 46.4%.
Of those 83 shorter priced runners, the record in 2yr old maidens like today’s contest stands at 11 winners from 22 (50% SR) for 14.76 pts (+67.1% ROI) profit.
Without going over old ground from yesterday too much, it’s safe to say that Richard Fahey has every trust in Jack Garrity, having already given him 295 rides and that faith has been rewarded via 52 winners (17.6% SR) and 65.9pts (+22.3% ROI) profit.
Jack also has a good record at lower odds here at Catterick having won three times from six rides below 5/1 with the 50% SR producing 6.41 pts (106.8% ROI) profit he’s two from three on such horses trained by Richard Fahey for 4.99pts (+166.3% ROI) profit.
Those are my reasons for backing Early Bird at 5/2 BOG and I’ve placed that bet with Bet365, but the same price is available elsewhere at Paddy Power, BetVictor and Ladbrokes, although the latter won’t go BOG until 9.00am.
You can take your pick of the bookies, when you…
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