Double Dutch, 7th October 2015

Double Dutch, 7th October 2015

A nice 4/1 winner at Brighton yesterday wasn’t backed up later at Leicester, so no double landed on the day, I’m afraid.

But with You’re Fired being one of a host of non-runners across the country as the weather deteriorated, we got paid out on that 4/1 single, meaning a small 0.5pts profit was made. I know it sounds insignificant, but that 0.5pts is an ROI of 25%!

I’d take that rate of return every day.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Secret Ambition : WON at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Beatbybeatbybeat : 6th at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Melvin The Grate : 4th at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
You’re Fired : non-runner (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
694 winning selections from 2471 = 28.09%
221 winning bets in 641 days = 34.48%

Stakes: 1281.00pts
Returns: 1395.52pts
P/L : +114.52pts (+8.94% ROI)

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Awful weather makes Wednesday tricky, but here goes…

3.25 Towcester :

A pair of last time out winners look to hold the key here and my marginal preference is for Cool Macavity at 9/4 BOG, who comes here off the back of a win at Plumpton 17 days ago, where despite being outpaced in the midsection of the race, finished strongly to win by almost 2.5 lengths and this is a horse who was winning at grade 2 level last year, so this shouldn’t be too stiff a test.

This is Nicky Henderson’s only runner here today, but he has 15 winners from 42 runs (35.7% SR) over hurdles at this venue since 2009, whilst jockey David Bass has a 20% strike rate here, suggesting we’ll get a run for our money from Cool Macavity.

The danger is Argot, who was also a winner on that same Plumpton card 17 days ago, albeit at one grade lower than today, but the 4yr old was defying a 5-month layoff and had been knocking on the door prior to that win, finishing as a runner-up in his other three efforts over hurdles this year, before a third place on the Kempton A/W over 1m4f, where he only lost by 1.25 lengths, so we can assume he’ll be nippy enough between the hurdles.

Argot is raised just 3lbs for that recent win, but does have the benefit of a 7lb claimer on his back to reduce the load and with male handicap hurdlers running 16 to 25 days after a win LTO in a novice hurdle winning 71 of 304 (23.4% SR) races for 130.4pts (+42.9% ROI) since the start of 2010, Argot has to be considered at 5/2 BOG.


5.20 Kempton :

Nags Wag was a winner on debut in a Class 5 maiden at Bath back in April, but has failed to reproduce that form in any of her five subsequent runs, but in fairness I think too much has been asked of her, plying her trade at Classes 2 and 3. This drop back to Class 6 and also into claiming company could be just the ticket to get this young filly back into a bit of form, before running poorly becomes a habit.

She’s very well treated at the weights here today and her trainer David Evans is very adept at placing claimers into the right races at the right weights and with 39 winners from 208 (18.75% SR) runners in Class 6 claimers since 2009 producing 41.3pts (+19.8% ROI) profit, you’d have to think that Nags Wag would be decent value for a 15/8 BOG bet today in a race, where…

…I expect the 7/2 BOG Zoraida to be the likeliest challenger. She has been running consistently well and has a win at Musselburgh under her belt already, but now switches to the Polytrack for the first time, but that does at least mean she hasn’t tried it and failed, like most of her rivals!

Her trainer Keith Dalgleish is no mug when it comes to finding the right A/W races for his runners and he has a good record on this very track with 10 winners from 58 (17.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+27% ROI) over the last four years, so I expect he will have Zoraida well prepped for her first run on the surface.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Cool Macavity  / Nags Wag @ 9.08/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Cool Macavity  / Zoraida @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : generally)
Argot / Nags Wag @ 8.36/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : generally)
Argot / Zoraida @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)

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