Stat of the Day, 8th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2015

When I started typing Thursday’s selection up at 7.40pm on Wednesday evening, our 11/4 bet on Circuitous hadn’t been resolved, but I’ll update you on that one later.

I can tell you that he was backed in to 9/4 the last time I looked!

On to Thursday and more late night A/W action, this time in the…

8.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6, 1m2f A/W handicap for 3yr olds and older, where Tom Eaves will attempt to ride James Given’s 4yr old filly The Dukkerer to a second course and distance win inside a fortnight and they’re priced up at an attractive-looking 6/1 BOG to do so.

That race was the horse’s second trip to this track and her very first crack at the 1m2f trip here, but she did have the guidance of Tom Eaves, who is having an excellent year here on this course. He has ridden 7 winners from 33 rides (21.2% SR) in handicaps here in 2015 with the 10.8pts profits made equating to 32.6% of stakes invested.

But, it’s at the shorter end of the market where Tom has more joy with all winners falling into the 5/2 to 7/1 odds range, where he is 7/13 (53.9% SR) for 30.8pts (+236.7% ROI).

And if Tom does well, the same can be said for trainer James Given, for his horses have won 8 of 34 races (23.5% SR) for 26.8pts (+78.8% ROI) here this year and not only is that a decent return, you might be surprised to see how well this contest fits into the profile of his successes. In descending order of sample size, those 34 Chelmsford runners this year are…

  1. 7/28 (25% SR) for 52.7pts (+20.7% ROI) in handicaps
  2. 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 34.8pts (+133.9% ROI) at odds of 5/2 to 10/1
  3. 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 22.7pts (+87.1% ROI) when running after a break of less than 20 days
  4. 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 6.6pts (+28.7% ROI) when ridden by Tom Eaves in a handicap
  5. 5/20 (25% SR) for 9.4pts (+47% ROI) finishing in the top 4 last time out
  6. 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 15.8pts (+112.6% ROI) at Classes 5 & 6
  7. 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.8pts (+98.1% ROI) with 4yr olds
  8. 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 16.4pts (+205.4% ROI) from female runners
  9. 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 9.3pts over this 1m2f course and distance

And breathe! 😀

James Given / Tom Eaves / Chelmsford Class 3 to 6 A/W handicaps at 5/2 to 10/1 less than 20 days after a top 4 finish LTO = 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 16.8pts (+186.7% ROI) including, of course, The Dukkerer over track and trip 14 days ago.

The team are 6/1 BOG with both SkyBet and Betvictor, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but are non-BOG until the morning. So why not…

…click here for the betting on the 8.40 Chelmsford

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Here is today’s racecard.

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