Double Dutch, 8th October 2015
Just as on Tuesday, Wednesday brought us a winner that was only paired with a non-runner, which at least ensured we didn’t lose all our stake. Cool Macavity was, unfortunately, withdrawn at Towcester, leaving Argot as our sole runner there, but second place was the best we could muster there.
We fared beter at Kempton, though as Nag’s Wag ran out a 2/1 winner, meaning a small loss on the day, but not the full 2pts!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Argot : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Cool Macavity : non-runner (adv 5/2)
Nags Wag : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Zoraida : 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
695 winning selections from 2474 = 28.09%
222 winning bets in 642 days = 34.58%
P/L : +114.02pts (+8.89% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a couple of close calls, I’m hoping for better from these on Thursday…
In a race fairly bereft of runners with good recent form, it’s probably best to look at the likes of My Nosy Rosy here, as this likeable 7 yr old mare has put three good runs together over the last six weeks, resulting in a couple of runner-up finishes before a win last time out at Chepstow, where she finished strongly to win by 6 lengths.
She does, of course, bear a penalty for that win, but the 7lbs is negated by her jockey’s claim and despite not winning anywhere near as many races as her handlers would have hoped, she always gives her best and does run consistently well. Trips of 2m to 2m1f on good to soft ground seem to suit her best and if running in the same manner as her last three outings, My Nosy Rosy could follow up here at 3/1 BOG.
The other option is to back Ashcott Boy at 7/2 BOG, a horse that won back to back efforts over this track and trip around this time of year in 2014, albeit over hurdles. He hasn’t quite hit those heights over fences, but travelled well for a long way last time out at Plumpton three weeks ago, but was probably undone by the 2m 3.5f trip and also the lack of a run for 332 days.
He’s down in trip today, takes a drop in class too and will be partnered by one of the better amateur jumps jockeys (DG Noonan) who will take a valuable 5lbs off the horses back here. Ashcott Boy can be forgiven for running out of steam last time out, but with the benefit of the run and entering a weaker contest, I’d expect him to be on the premises this time.
The obvious starting point has to be Hughie Morrison’s 3 yr old filly, Shifting Moon, who comes here in excellent form, having won each of her last three outings, all of which were here at Chelmsford where she is now unbeaten in four starts. She has won here over 13.5f twice, 14f and also over this 2m track and trip just two starts ago.
She’s up another 5lbs for that latest win, but receives a very handy 11lb weight for age allowance today, effectively making her better off at the weights. She’s 3 from 3 under Kieran Fox and 4 from 4 in fields of 8/9 runners and at 3/1 BOG, Shifting Moon might take some beating at a decent price.
The other one of interest is the lightly raced Tafolau, who was third (2.5 lengths back) behind Shifting Moon here over 1m 5.5f last time out, but is 5lbs better off with the selection today. She’s unexposed after just four runs and takes another step up in trip today.
Trainer (Prescott) and jockey (Morris) have good personal and combined records in A/W handicaps and the yard does well with unexposed types stepping up in trip, so a 9/2 BOG wager on Tafolau might not be the worst decision I make today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
My Nosy Rosy / Shifting Moon @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Coral)
My Nosy Rosy / Tafolau @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Betway)
Ashcott Boy / Shifting Moon @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : Coral & SkyBet)
Ashcott Boy / Tafolau @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : generally)