Double Dutch, 9th October 2015
A bit of a rollercoaster ride on Thursday for DD followers.
I really liked My Nosy Rosy at Worcester and when she fell at the secnd, my heart sank a little, but I was quickly reminded of why I also put Ashcott Boy up, as he travelled really well on his way to an 18 lengths victory. So far so good!
And then came a bit of a car crash at Chelmsford, a track where I had a bit of a ‘mare yesterday, if truth be told. I’d two unplaced runners from 2 Stat Picks there, my SotD lost there and our two runners for DD were out of the frame too, finishing 4th and 7th in a race where only 7 finished.
Chelmsford certainly didn’t do much for me last night and in true rollercoaster style, I came away feeling a little empty and underwhelmed!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Ashcott Boy : WON at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
My Nosy Rosy : fell at 11/2 (adv 3/1)
Shifting Moon : 4th at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Tafolau : 7th at 8/1 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
696 winning selections from 2478 = 28.09%
222 winning bets in 643 days = 34.53%
P/L : +112.02pts (+8.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Better needed on Friday…
Morito Du Berlais makes his seasonal reappearance today and will look to pick up where he left off at the end of his last campaign, when winning at Ascot at the end of March, taking his tally for last season to 3 wins and 2 places from just six runs. There might be some fears about his ability to win first time up after 194 days off the track, but he did reappear at this time last year to win at Exeter after 166 days off, so clearly goes well fresh.
He has won two of five starts on good to soft ground and with trainer Paul Nicholls having a 30.3% strike rate (30 from 99) over hurdles at this venue since 2008, there’s a very strong case to be made for Morito Du Berlais at 11/4 BOG (Betway) this morning.
In opposition, the class act is Gevrey Chambertin, but that one is a better chaser than a hurdler these days and was disappointing at Auteuil recently, so my attention turns to Just A Normal Day, who represents Team Skelton and comes here in good form, having two wins and a place from his last three outings. He does have to be kept at his work, which is why I’m happy to see Harry back in the saddle today.
That’s no disrespect to Bridget Andrews (who I happen to rate quite highly), who rode the horse to third place last time out, but Harry does seem to get a bit more from the horses he rides and with a lazy sort like Just A Normal Day, that could make all the difference. Harry is 2 from 2 on the horse this season, which has coincided with the application of cheekpieces and they’re expected to go well again today at 100/30 BOG.
Sir Mark Prescott’s runners are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 24.8pts (+75.1% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton since the tapeta track was installed and in All For The Best, he has an interesting runner who drops back in trip to be a bit more competitive this evening. This 3 yr old has run well over longer trips than this, but has been beaten by not seeing the trips out, so the drop back should help his case.
He did win over 1m5f earlier this summer and is now only a pound higher than that winning mark and with a 9lb weight for age allowance allied to a drop in class and the booking of Luke Morris (15/72 = 20.8% SR for 18.2pts @ 25.35 ROI in C5 hcps on the tapeta here) must give All For The Best every chance at 7/2 BOG this evening.
In opposition, we have Devon Drum, who has done nothing wrong in his last two starts other than a failure to get his head in front. This will be the third time Martin Harley has climbed on his back, having ridden him to two narrow defeats as a runner-up in his last two starts both at Chelmsford.
This represents a drop in class for the horse for his first run in almost a year at a track, where both his trainer and jockey have done well in the past and if he can run to the same levels shown at Chelmsford recently, then Devon Drum will be there or thereabouts at 4/1 BOG (Betway) here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Morito Du Berlais / All For The Best @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : Betway)
Morito Du Berlais / Devon Drum @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : Betway)
Just A Normal Day / All For The Best @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Just A Normal Day / Devon Drum @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Betway)