Stat of the Day, 10th October 2015
Amour D’Or raced prominently and travelled well enough at Newton Abbot to be in with a real chance approaching the penultimate flight of hurdles, but as the tempo was increasing, she made a poor jump and was quickly out of contention.
Lizzie Kelly gave it her all to get the horse to pick up some speed, but her race was already run and she faded back into 5th place, some 8 lengths behind the winner. At 5/1 BOG, we beat the book by a point, but that’s as good as it got and we now arrive at Saturday looking for a win in the…
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Where I’ve just taken 3/1 BOG about David Evans’ colt Gracious John, who will be seeking to complete a hat-trick of wins under jockey John Egan.
This will be just his fifth start and he showed some promise on debut when 3rd of 10 at Lingfield over 7.5f overcoming a slow start to pick up enough speed to get to within three quarters of a length of the winner that day, but it’s the switch to sprinting that has brought the best out of him so far.
He’s 2 from 2 now at 5/5.5f, having won here at York over 5.5f five weeks ago, when beating Poet’s Prize by 2.5 lengths and PP won an £81,000 pot at Newmarket last Saturday!
Gracious John then moved on to Haydock two weeks ago for a handicap/nursery debut, where he relished the soft conditions, running on to land an easy three lengths victory.
That took his tally to two from two under John Egan, a jockey who rides well here at York with a 17.7% strike rate over the last 10 seasons on the Knavesmire via 14 wins from 82 contests.
Of those 82 rides, John has 8 winners from 33 (24.2% SR) at trips of 6f and shorter, he is 7/18 (38.9% SR) when riding two year olds and has 3 wins from 11 rides (27.3% SR) in Listed races here at York.
John also has a decent, of not mind-blowing record when riding for David Evans, having ridden 30 winners from 257 (11.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 34.1pts at an ROI of 13.3%. of which he’s 17/117 (14.5% SR) for 48.9pts (+41.8% ROI) at trips of 6f and shorter.
As I said earlier, he’s 2 from 2 on this horse who is 1 from 1 at York and 1 from 1 on soft ground and has two wins from three runs down a straight track, making him of real interest at 3/1 BOG.
That 3/1 BOG price is quite widely available, but I’d recommend you use either 10Bet or Coral, as both will refund your stake if the horse loses by a head or less. Betway will refund defeats of up to a length, but they don’t go BOG until 10.00am on racedays.
Whichever way you choose to go, the first thing you should do is…
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