Double Dutch, 12th October 2015

Double Dutch, 12th October 2015

Close but not close enough on Saturday as this frustrating run of near-misses continues.

Tw0 runners-up, a third and a fourth was the outcome as we walked away empty handed once again. Although to be honest, even though Beacon Rock only went down by half a length at Newmarket, we weren’t close at Hexham in terms of distance off the winner, as Present Flight was beaten by a good 12 lengths.

Sometimes, actual finishing positions can be flattering/misleading.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Present Flight : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Scorpions Sting : 4th at 15/2 (adv 9/2)
Beacon Rock : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 4/1)
Ibn Malik : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2486 = 28.04%
222 winning bets in 645 days = 34.42%

Stakes: 1289.00pts
Returns: 1397.02pts
P/L : +108.02pts (+8.38% ROI)

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I’ve had some connectivity issues this morning, hence the tardiness of today’s selections, so I’ll keep this brief (by my standards, anyway!)

2.20 Salisbury :

A poor looking contest, but Beauchamp Monark is steadily improving and if he brings his A/W form tot he turf, then he has every chance of maintaining the recent pregression shown in a couple of third placed finishes at Lingfield and Wolverhampton back in July.

He’s had a decent 11-week break after the exertions of making his first three starts in the space of three weeks and if up for the fight, Beauchamp Monark could step up and take this at 3/1 BOG, ahead of…

The Juggler, who actually holds a Derby entry, but that would be unlikely based on his first two runs. He wasn’t disgraced in finishing 6th at Newmarket in a higher grade than this 18 days ago in a contest where only the third placed horse has reappeared since, but did win a Class 4 maiden last Wednesday.

A drop in class and the booking of Andrea Atzeni (18% SR here in the last 3 seasons) might be all that’s needed to get The Juggler off the mark at 5/2 BOG today.


3.30 Windsor :

The filly Noblest has been knocking on the door of late, finishing third in each of her last three starts, the latest being at Wolverhampton nine days when she got run out of it late on over 7f coming off the back of a 15-week absence. The extra furlong and a half and the benefit of having had the run should both aid her cause this afternoon.

Her trainer William Haggas has a good record here at Windsor (25% SR in last 7 seasons), as does her jockey Joe Fanning (5 from 21 = 23.8% SR with 2/3 yr olds here since 2009), suggesting Noblest has got every chance at 7/4 BOG in a contest, where her biggest challenge…

…is expected to come from the 2/1 BOG Brutus, who was fifth in a Class 3 handicap at Nottingham (10f on good ground and only beaten by less than 3 lengths) 12 days ago and has to be considered back in maiden company, especially dropping down two grades to be here.

His handlers are now putting the blinkers on for the first time and if they have the desired effect, Brutus could well be too strong for an ordinary looking field on ground with some cut in it (he has finished 2nd on soft ground two starts ago) and in Oisin Murphy, he has a jockey with an 18% SR at this track over the last two seasons.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

The Juggler / Noblest @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Stan James)
The Juggler / Brutus @ 109.08/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Beauchamp Monark / Noblest @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Beauchamp Monark / Brutus @ 10.52/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : BetVictor, Hills & Stan James)

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