Stat of the Day, 13th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2015

Thames Knight missed out by just over length in a very messy race at Windsor on Monday afternoon, eventually finishing fourth in the scramble late on that saw the first six home all within two lengths of each other.

I thought our pick was overpriced and represented value at 7/1 and despite not winning, that angle was proven correct, as he was returned with an SP of 9/2.

It is, admittedly tricky out there at the moment, but getting 156% of SP will bear fruit in the long run.

North of the Border we go next, for the…

3.00 Musselburgh :

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Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

For Messrs Johnston and Fanning and a 3yr old filly called Nomenklatura, who can be backed at 11/4 BOG for this Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f on good ground.

OK, back to basics to beat this cold spell we’ve had of late…

Since 2008, Mark Johnston’s runners at Musselburgh are…

  • 49/186 (26.3% SR) for 74.5pts (+40.1% ROI) when ridden by Joe Fanning
  • 37/151 (24.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+30.9% ROI) when unrated (OR) or have a rating in the 60’s.
  • 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 24.1pts (+40.9% ROI) when turned out 6 to 10 days after their last run
  • 8/32 (25% SR) for 18.2pts (+56.8% ROI) in Class 6 races

Which all points to a good run from Nomenklatura here, as does the fact that she was a winner at a higher grade than this just 8 days ago at Hamilton, when she fairly strung out a field of 11 fellow 3 yr olds. She’s upped in weight by 6lbs today, but that is more than covered by her 7lb allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap and her trainer is a dab hand at exploiting this allowance.

Mark Johnston’s 3 yr olds in 3yo+ Flat handicaps over 1m4f to 2m (ie where the allowances are greatest!) since 2008 are 84/346 (24.3% SR) for 92.6pts (+26.8% ROI), which make them well worth backing blindly.

A closer analysis of the 346 runners with today’s race in mind tells us that they are…

  • 45/183 (24.6% SR) for 61.7pts (+33.7% ROI) over 1m4f
  • 31/114 (27.2% SR) for 35.1pts (+30.8% ROI) under Joe Fanning
  • 33/101 (32.7% SR) for 53.2pts (+52.7% ROI) within 6 to 10 days of their last run
  • 25/70 (35.7% SR) for 19.3pts (+27.5% ROI) who last time out.

When Joe Fanning rides a Mark Johnston 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f, 6 to 10 after its last run, the results are 9 winners from 17 (52.9% SR) and 27.8pts (+163.3% ROI) profit, of which last time out winners are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+193.2% ROI) profit.

I’ve taken my 11/4 BOG about Nomenklatura from Totesport, but others are matching that price, so you’d be advised to…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Here is today’s racecard.

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