Double Dutch, 13th October 2015
Monday followed Saturday’s lead with two more runners-up, as firstly The Juggler went down by 2.75 lengths in a maiden at Salisbury and then 70 minutes later at Windsor, Noblest was headed inside the final furlong, losing a similar contest by a length and a quarter.
We’re knocking on the door and not far from away from hitting some doubles, but none of that improves the bottom line!
Monday’s results were as follows:
The Juggler : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Beauchamp Monark : 6th at 8/1 (adv 3/1)
Noblest : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Brutus : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2490 = 27.99%
222 winning bets in 646 days = 34.37%
P/L : +106.02pts (+8.21% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hoping to go one step better today with a possible, but unintended, American double…
The Pipe/Scudamore alliance is a potent weapon and in Impulsive American, they’ve got a promising 3yr old on their hands. This horse only made his UK racecourse debut seven weeks ago (8 runs in France), when running in a soft ground 11.5f handicap at Carlisle where he was well beaten, before following up with a win over 1m4f on faster ground at Chepstow 17 days later.
That’s when the switch to hurdling was made and just a fortnight after that Flat win (3 weeks ago), he was 4th of 10 on his first start over timber, with the promise shown that day backed up with a runner-up finish last time out.
Ground speed between the hurdles is assured, he stays the trip and if the Pipe team think he’s ready for handicap action, so do I. He gets chunks of weight all round (17lbs WFA allowance) and therefore Impulsive American should be the one to beat here at 3/1 BOG (Betway).
Next best will hopefully be Spa’s Dancer, who has a few more miles on the clock, but can still be considered unexposed : let me explain quickly. 51 starts on Flat & A/W including a couple of cracks at landing a Listed event, but just three starts over hurdles. Pulled up on hurdling debut 49 months ago and then third at Ludlow three years ago next week, but obviously kept busy elsewhere between.
This 8yr old then didn’t see another hurdle for 35 months before being sent to Warwick three weeks ago, where he finished third once again. I think that running over hurdles more often would bring more out of him and although it’s a little bit of guesswork, I think he’ll come on for having had that recent outing and Spa’s Dancer could well be very good value for his current 4/1 BOG pricetag.
The lightly raced filly, American Hustle will be looking to continue her consistent run of form since making her debut less than 4 months ago, having finished 43222 in her five starts to date. She gets a small, but useful 2lbs weight for age allowance, which cancels out a rise imposed from her last run, when beaten by three lengths at Ayr 25 days ago, where she had led until inside the final furlong.
She has seemed to be outpaced late on in recent runs and today she drops back a furlong, which should enable her to see the task out better and go one better, especially having now had the experience of a handicap debut and if you like American Hustle, you can currently back her at 9/4 BOG, but I have a slight preference for…
…Oak Bluffs, who looks decent value at the 5/1 BOG odds being offered by quite a few firms (perhaps I’ve misread the race?). A winner twice and a runner-up twice from just 6 outings over the last year, this horse has rarely run a bad race of late. He was second at Newcastle at the start of September, when he possibly needed the run after a 7 month absence and then backed that up with a win next/last time out at Ayr 26 days ago.
He’s up 4lbs for that win, but the talented rising star, Sammy Jo Bell, hops into the saddle today and deals with most of that rise with her 3lb claim and she’ll be hoping to extend her excellent record when riding in Flat handicaps for Richard Fahey, which has seen her win 19 times from 105 races (18.1% SR) for profits of 44.9pts at an ROI of 42.8%.
At odds of 13/2 and shorter over trips of 6f to 9f, the partnership has 13 wins from 31 (41.9% SR) this season, producing profits of 36.7pts (+118.5% ROI), adding another layer of interest to the selection of Oak Bluffs today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Impulsive American / American Hustle @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Betway)
Impulsive American / Oak Bluffs @ 23/1 (3/1 & 5/1 : Betway)
Spa’s Dancer / American Hustle @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes & Paddy P)
Spa’s Dancer / Oak Bluffs @ 29 (4/1 & 5/1 : BetVictor & Stan James)