Stat of the Day, 14th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2015

I feel like I must have run over a black cat or something, as I couldn’t pick my own nose right now, but it’s only form and as we all know, that does have a tendency to be temporary.

For as much as I refuse to get carried away when we’re on a winning streak (and I do try to temper your expecattions in the good times!), I also refuse to get a losing spell get me down. After all, I’ve got the weather to do that for me.

SotD is, of course, a long-term project and the longer you go, the more ups and downs you suffer and we just crack on : there are no hiding places here at Geegeez, so we go again. Tuesday’s runner Nomenklatura ran well, but not quite as well as the winner who beat us into second place after our runner was headed inside the final furlong (sound familiar?) at 3/1.

Jumping in Yorkshire is my next port of call for the…

4.25 Wetherby :

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Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where the in-form Brian Ellison has a decent if not spectacular record and has a runner in the shape of Racing Europe who looks overpriced at the 7/1 BOG currently available from BetVictor, but before I move on to explaining the pick, let me assure you that this isn’t me tilting at windmills looking for a big-priced winner to steady the ship. I just think he’s too long at 7’s.

Brian Ellison comes into this meeting on the back of a run that has seen him saddle up 5 winners from 10 NH runners in the last 10 days and that 50% strike rate has yielded 11.43pts at an ROI of 114.3% and he’ll look to improve those numbers today.

His overall record here at Wetherby since 2009 shows a very healthy 18.7% strike courtesy of 23 winners from 123 and although the level stakes profits of 10.6pts equate to a return above stakes invested of “just” 8.6%, those are from blind backing with no thought required and it’s certainly more than my bank give me!

And if we can make profit from blind backing, you know there’ll be some angles to exploit for greater returns…

  • His male runners are 21/115 (18.3% SR)for 14pts (+12.2% ROI)
  • In 4yo+ races, his runners are 16/82 (19.5% SR) for 29.1pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • In handicaps, they are 96/68 (13.2% SR) for 20.3pts (+29.9% ROI)
  • Over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f, they are 7/25 (28% SR) for 36.92pts (+147.7% ROI)

His males in 2m4.5f to 2m6f, 4yo+ handicaps here are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 45pts (+408.9% ROI) profit.

Racing Europe has finished 24112 in five runs on good to soft ground, so the conditions underfoot should be fine, he’s 1 from 2 under today’s jockey and any fears about his 180-day absence are allayed by a victory after a 266 day absence earlier in his career.

I’ve taken 7/1 BOG about Racing Europe from BetVictor; Ladbrokes are the same price non-BOG until morning, but I think he’ll shorten before the race, so non-BOG should be OK, but that’s your choice, as is whether or not to hedge your bet and go E/W.

It’s win only for me, but I suggest that you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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