Double Dutch, 14th October 2015

Double Dutch, 14th October 2015

I don’t like to lament my current misfortune, but I can’t help but think that if I wasn’t suffering bad luck, I’d have no luck at all!

American Hustle seemed to do everything right, playing a waiting game and seizing the lead inside the final furlong. Unfortunately another had the same idea, the lead was shortlived and we got beat by a neck close to home, but that was all academic anyway, after the farce at Huntingdon…

…where Impulsive American was making good steady progress stalking the leaders, looking to have plenty left to give, before he made a mess of landing after the penultimate hurdle sending himself and his rider to the turf and to add insult to the injury, he brought down our other runner too, leaving us with a blank day.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Impulsive American : fell at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Spa’s Dancer : BD at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
American Hustle : 2nd at 10/3 (adv 9/4)
Oak Bluffs : 5th at 3/1 (adv 5/1)

Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2494 = 27.95%
222 winning bets in 647 days = 34.31%

Stakes: 1293.00pts
Returns: 1397.02pts
P/L : +104.02pts (+8.04% ROI)

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Wednesday looks like this…

4.00 Worcester :

Fact of the Matter was never troubled when winning a bumper at Chepstow a fortnight ago, he led from a long way out and was well clear with 2f to run. He wasn’t needed to be ridden at any point and despite being eased down to little more than a trot, still ran out an easy winner by a length and a half. His breeding (by Brian Boru) suggests that this trip (if not further in time) will be right up his street.

Although this is his hurdling debut, he has already proven he can jump by winning a PTP at Loughrea in Ireland this time last year. Jamie Snowden’s runners are going well at the moment and having bypassed yesterday’s meeting at Huntingdon, perhaps they see this as a better option for Fact of the Matter, who can be backed at 5/2 BOG in most places.

The interesting one in opposition is Henry Oliver’s After Hours and this 6yr old was a winner on his UK debut in a Chepstow bumper back in April. He finished 5 lengths clear of Ballinure that day and the latter has run twice since, winning a bumper of his own at Warwick in May and then reappearing yesterday at Huntingdon, where he was only beaten into second place by half a length on his hurdling debut.

Prior to his win in that bumper, After Hours had also competed in four PTP events in the last 12 months, finishing 4221 showing improvement each time, culminating in a convincing 8 lengths victory at Bennetsbridge. This suggests that today’s trip will be more suitable than the bare minimum used for bumpers and with his experience surely counting for something here, he could be a decent bet at 9/2 BOG.


4.55 Wetherby :

When I was looking for some bets to place today, I couldn’t have a bet in this race, because I found very little between Notnowsam and Such A Legend, but the beauty of the Double Dutch is that I can have both!

Notnowsam makes just his third start for the formidable Skelton duo, having won very comfortably on his chase debut at Warwick and then finishing fourth back over hurdles a week later. He has been well rested (155 days) since those runs and you know he’ll have been very well schooled in his time away from the track.

Obviously unexposed over fences and with probably plenty more to come, a 10lb rise in weight shouldn’t be enough to anchor him completely today and although, he might not run away with things as he did on debut, Notnowsam has every chance at 11/4 BOG and is just about my marginal preference over…

…another horse coming off a similar lay-off (165 days here) in the shape of the 9/2 BOG Such A Legend who was second at Uttoxeter last time out, some 15 lengths ahead of Red Seventy, who has since won at both this C3 level and also at Class 2.

He’s a son of one of my favourite sires, Midnight Legend, whose offspring are 93/430 (21.6% SR) for 232.9pts (+54.2% ROI) over fences at trips of up to 3m4f on ground softer than good since the start of 2009. Following the Midnight Legend chasers blindly is profitable and despite Such A Legend now being 7yrs old, he’s still unexposed in this sphere after just three starts.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Fact of the Matter / Notnowsam @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor, Paddy P & Coral)
Fact of the Matter / Such A Legend @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : 10Bet & Ladbrokes)
After Hours / Notnowsam @ 19.63/1 (9/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
After Hours / Such A Legend @ 29.25/1 (9/2 & 9/2 : 10Bet & Ladbrokes)

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