Stat of the Day, 15th October 2015
Racing Europe was really well backed on Wednesday, which did at least back up my affirmation that I wasn’t aimlessly punting at a big priced horse to get me out of the current rut I’m sitting in.
There were obviously plenty of people (including some respected names in the industry) sharing my view that 7/1 was too long and he was eventually sent off as an 11/4 favourite, meaning we’d secured ourselves a ticket at almost 255% of SP. Doing that on a regular basis will make a profit, but unfortunately not on this occasion.
He travelled really well until around the last flight of hurdles when the pace increased and he found himself unable to go with the leading pair and his inability to quicken was highlighted in him surrendering 3rd place on the run-in to deny the E/W punters amongst us even the consolation prize.
Nevertheless, Thursday represents another opportunity climb off the cold list and it’s a back to basics pick in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Where I’ve just taken 4/1 BOG about Alan King’s 3 yr old filly Forgiving Glance.
It’s OK, I haven’t taken leave of my senses due to the current drought I’m enduring. Yes, Alan King is best known as a NH trainer and his A/W runners form just 3.7% of his 7,427 runners to grace a racetrack since the start of 2003 and I’m also aware that today’s pick is still a maiden after nine starts, but she has run consistently well this year and is totally unexposed over both track and trip.
She shaped as though she needed further than 1m5f last time out when headed and outpaced deep into the final furlong at Bath a month ago, as she went down by just half a length to Le Torrent, who was then a winner here at Chelmsford just five days ago to complete a hat-trick.
The third placed horse from bath, Doctor Kehoe was the best part of three lengths behind Forgiving Glance, but he too went on to win next time out (at Wolverhampton) and despite being raised another 3lb and stepped up in class, he was only then beaten by just over four lengths in a decent contest on Tuesday night (I backed him that night too!).
So, if the form from the Bath run holds out for Forgiving Glance‘s reappearance, she should go very close again and then finally win after finishing 2432 in her four outings this year.
And now back to Alan King…
As I said at the top, he doesn’t run too many on the A/W, but when there’s some interest in them, they seem to go well and since 2008 in A/W handicaps with horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1, he has managed to hit 19 winners from 75 and whilst this isn’t the biggest sample size I’ve ever put before you, a 25.3% strike rate that produces 18.9pts at an ROI of 25.2% is difficult to dismiss out of hand.
In relation to this contest, those 75 runners are…
- 15/48 (31.25% SR) for 26.3pts (+54.7% ROI) since the start of 2012
- 9/31 (29% SR) for 16.4pts (+52.9% ROI) when ridden by Fergus Sweeney
- 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 20.6pts (+89.4% ROI) from female horses
- 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 5.2pts (+30.6% ROI) from his 3 yr olds
- 9/15 (60% SR) for 27.9pts (+185.8% ROI) in Class 6 competition
- 3/6 (50% SR) for 11.7pts (+194.6% ROI) here at Chelmsford
And since the start of 2012, those ridden by Fergus Sweeney in Class 5/6 races are 6/20 (30% SR) for 15.2pts (+75.8% ROI) profit.
Fergus rides this track well and has been on board this horse twice in the past to finish second and third, but the step up in trip is the key here for me. If she “gets” the 2m, she’s sure to be on the premises when the prizes are given out. Time will, of course, tell.
My quoted price is with Bet365, whilst 7/2 BOG seems to be the norm elsewhere. If you need to use another firm other than Bet365, you can always…
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