Double Dutch, 15th October 2015

Double Dutch, 15th October 2015

In what seems a bit like Groundhog Day, I have to tell you that I failed to provide a winner again yesterday.

Fact of the Matter was travelling really well in race 1 and had every chance of winning at a well-backed 7/4 (advised at 5/2) but he stumbled three from home and despite the jockey doing his level best to stay on board, horse and rider parted company at the penultimate flight, with our other runner also well backed (9/2 to 5/2), but only managing 3rd place, beaten by over a dozen lengths.

We got 2nd and 4th in race 2 with Notnowsam Notgettinghome. He got a bit embroiled in a tussle for the lead with Muwalla from about 4 fences from home and the lead went back and forth as they took each other on. Unfortunately for them, they both ignored the steadily gaining Oliver’s Gold who came up to lead at the last and pulled a couple of lengths clear on the run in.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

After Hours : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 9/2)
Fact of the Matter : UR at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Notnowsam : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Such A Legend : 4th at 9/4 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
697 winning selections from 2498 = 27.90%
222 winning bets in 648 days = 34.26%

Stakes: 1295.00pts
Returns: 1397.02pts
P/L : +102.02pts (+7.88% ROI)

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I could really do with a pair of winners from these…

4.25 Carlisle :

You don’t see too many Kim Bailey runners here at Carlisle, but the team have an excellent chance with By The Boardwalk here, who has won very comfortably on three of his last four starts and was well in contention when falling 2 from home two starts ago.

He is, admittedly, up another 11lbs for that latest 9 length victory (the sum of the winning margins from the three wins is 44L!) and now has to run off a career-high of 131, but he beat a couple rated 129 and 130 last time out, suggesting he’s possibly better than this new mark. 15/8 BOG is, however, as good as you’ll get here.

There’s not much to choose between his four rivals, but Enchanted Garden has run consistently well of late and is still unexposed over fences after just five attempts, finishing 2312F, having fallen at Perth three from home when a couple of lengths clear and going well last time out.

He’s had over five weeks to get over the fall and provided it hasn’t dented his confidence too much, he does look the most likely to chase the selection home at 100/30 BOG


7.15 Chelmsford :

Marmalad is the pick at the weights here and will be looking to land a second successive claimer today. He comes here off the back of a decent run in a Class 5 handicap, when beaten by just over a length at Wolverhampton and this looks an easier task down in grade.

He was a winner at Lingfield two starts ago and although the form hasn’t amounted to much from that race, he bolted up by five lengths and you can only beat what’s put in front of you in these claimers. He now only carries 2lbs more than he did that day and Marmalad would be my preference here at 2/1 BOG.

Steady Major isn’t much longer in the market at 9/4 BOG and this is an interesting runner here, for there’s a bit more to him than his bare stats would suggest. Two wins from fourteen is hardly awe inspiring, but 10 of those rides were on turf and he just doesn’t seem to perform well on it!

And although he hasn’t raced here at Chelmsford before, his A/W record of 2211 demands respect, especially when closer analysis shows the defeats were only by a neck in a Class 5 hcp and by half a length in a Class 4 hcp. This C6 claimer is nowhere near that standard and Steady Major should at least give us a good run for our money.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

By The Boardwalk / Marmalad @ 7.29/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : generally)
By The Boardwalk / Steady Major @ 8.36/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Coral)
Enchanted Garden / Marmalad @ 11.48/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : Betway, Ladbrokes & SkyBet)
Enchanted Garden / Steady Major @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : Betway, Coral & SkyBet)

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