Stat of the Day, 16th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2015

Forgiving Glance was second at 5/2 on Thursday evening and didn’t run a bad race at all, he quite simply found one too good for him, as has tended to be the case for us of late. He was beaten by a good five lengths, but such was the strength of his own run, the other five runners were another 6 to 24 lengths further back in a well strung out field.

I know some of you are disheartened at the recent run, but we’re not a million miles from picking winners and like Wednesday, we smashed the SP again last night, with our 4/1 bet equating to 160% of the starting price and as I’ve said before, securing such value is the cornerstone of future success.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m as unhappy as you all are with recent results and it hurts to lose money, but we should remember it’s the bookies money we’re playing with and we’re only loaning it to them and I fully intend to start recalling the debt, starting with Friday’s…

3.00 Wincanton :

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In the shape of Fergal O’Brien’s 7yr old gelding Tangolan, about whom I’ve just taken 11/4 BOG.

This horse was useful enough over hurdles,but has kicked on further for taking on the bigger obstacles, finishing 112 in three starts to date. He won off marks of 108 and 115 and although he was beaten by a length and a half last time out, 12 days ago off his new mark of 120, his jockey takes 3lbs off today, which could easily account for that margin of defeat.

All his 3 career winsd have come in smaller (8 or less) fields, all within 10 to 30 days of his last run and all at around the 2m4f to 2m5.5f trip, so conditions look favourable for him today and in Fergal O’Brien, he’s trained by a man who knows just how to get a tune out of his chasers…

…as since the start of 2010, backing them has been a profitable exercise with 59 winners from 361 (16.3% SR) generating 107.1pts profit at an ROI of 29.7%. He doesn’t really have many decent stayers, but his chasers running at trips of 2m1f to 3m1.5f are 50/266 (18.8% SR) for 147.8pts (+55.6% ROI).

It has been very profitable to focus on his 6 to 8 yr old chasers, who have 42 of 234 (18% SR) for 109.4pts (+46.8% ROI), whilst his Class 3 runners are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 106.2pts (+118% ROI).

Now I know (from my mailbox) that lots of you like the litte 25-30 bets per year microsystems I generate for you from time to time, some of you are building a nice little portfolio with them, which is great. So your Fergal O’Brien chase angle that since the start of 2010 has made profit every year, including this one, is as follows…

Class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9 running over 2m1f to 3m1.5f (very simple one!) are 35/159 (22% SR) for 154.1pts (+96.9% ROI).

Conor Shoemark takes the ride today and although he was beaten into second place on his only ride of the day on Thursday, I was impressed with the way he manfully kept his runner going when they’d looked beaten from a long way out. His 3lb claim is going to be vital here today and I’m buoyed by looking at his performance on the O’Brien horses in the past…

…as since the start of 2013 Conor has ridden 13 winners from just 78 (16.7% SR) attempts on board a Fergal O’Brien chaser and the resultant 18.5pts profit equates to 23.7% of all stakes invested.

At trips of 2m3.5f to 2m5.5f , the partnership has 9 winners from 37 (24.3% SR) for 27.9pts (+75.5% ROI), whilst they are 4/20 920% SR) for 9.35pts (+46.75% ROI) at Class 3 level.

Put together the Shoemark / O’Brien / Class 3 chasers over 2m3.5f to 2m5.5f are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 20.35pts (+226.1% ROI)

That 11/4 BOG about Tangolan was with Paddy Power, whilst 5/2 BOG is pretty widely available, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Wincanton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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