Stat of the Day, 17th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2015

Tangolan jumped poorly, ran poorly, finished poorly and was sent off at a longer price than most of us has taken.

All round, a poor day!

We took 11/4, which I thought was a good price, Rule 4 reduced this to 11/5 and he was sent off at 5/2 with little market confidence. The market was, of course proven correct as he was last home of four, beaten by 64 lengths.

Saturdays are always tough, but I doubt I could do much worse than Friday’s pick with the one I’ve chosen from the…

4.55 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

As I stake my Geegeez shilling on the 3/1 BOG Forever My Friend in this 2m5f, Class 4 handicap chase.

Forever My Friend comes here hoping to maintain his recent fine form that has seen him win on each of his last outings, firstly at Cartmel 46 days ago at a higher grade than this over today’s 2m5f, before winning again over 2m 5.5f at Market Rasen 21 days ago.

So, he now comes here on a hat-trick and having swerved yesterday’s SotD race, I’d expect him to go well again and land his 8th chase victory from just 27 starts.

Of his current 7/26 record over fences, all seven wins have come from the 28 times he was sent off at 6/1 or shorter,he is 6 from 19 in fields of 5 to 9 runners and 6 from 14 on good ground.

In addition to this, he is 3 from 9 running after a break of 11 to 25 days, 3 from 6 at today’s trip, including 2 wins from 4 over course and distance with the same 2/4 record under today’s jockey Sean Bowen.

All of which suggests conditions are ideal for him here today, as he looks to extend his trainer, Peter Bowen’s fine record in handicap chases, which has seen him land 102 winners from 653 runners (15.6% SR) since the start of 2010, a record that has produced 93.8pts profit at an ROI of 14.4% and those 653 runners can be analysed as follows…

  • male runners are 100/627 (16% SR) for 105pts (+16.8% ROI)
  • those who last ran 6 to 25 days ago are 63/328 (19.2% SR) for 132.6pts (+40.4% ROI)
  • those in fields of 5 to 8 runners are 66/293 (22.5% SR) for 41.2pts (+14.1% ROI)
  • those running over 2m4f to 2m5.5f are 28/143 (19.6% SR) for 104.2pts (+72.9% ROI)

And if you want another 35 to 40 bets per year microsystem for your portfolio, you could go with Peter Bowen’s male handicap chasers running in fields of 5 to 12 runners at trips of 2.5 miles to 3.5 miles 6 to 25 days after their last run.

That gives 48 winners from 210 (22.9% SR) and level stakes profits of 116.9pts at an ROI of 55.6% with a record of 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 10.75pts (+82.7% ROI) so far this year,

We should also consider that Forever My Friend is in good form and has a good record over course and distance and its worth knowing that since 2010 Peter Bowen’s handicappers who were winners last time out and then raced over a track and trip they’d already won at, went on to win again on 10 of 31 occasions (32.3%SR), generating profits of 10pts (+32.3% ROI) in the process.

Of those 31 runners, they are 6/23 over fences, 4/9 at Class 4 and 4/7 here at Ffos Las.

That 3/1 BOG price is with Betway, but the Betfred / Totesport duo are also offering the same as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Ffos Las

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Here is today’s racecard.

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