Double Dutch, 19th October 2015

Double Dutch, 19th October 2015

As expected, Indian Pursuit were far too good for the rest of the field at Catterick on Saturday finishing 1st and 2nd with only a neck bewtween the pair and such was their dominance over the 6f sprint, that the 3rd placed horse was a further 4.5 lengths back.

This gave us a safe start and a couple of cracks at race 2, just 5 minutes later, but Bantam could only manage to finish as runner-up, dashing our hopes of a near 23.5/1 double in the process. We did, however have the small consolation of a modest 2.8/1 exacta fron the first race.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Indian Pursuit : WON at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Dacoity : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
The exacta paid £3.80 here
Bantam : 2nd at 15/2 (adv 9/2)
Poetic Verse : 4th at 11/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
701 winning selections from 2510 = 27.93%
223 winning bets in 651 days = 34.25%

Stakes: 1301.00pts
Returns: 1406.02pts
P/L : +105.02pts (+8.07% ROI)

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First picks of the new week are as follows…

2.50 Windsor :

The withdrawal of Nice Future overnight looks (on paper, at least) to have opened this race up nicely for Deodoro, who seems to have been pretty reasonably well treated with an opening mark of 79 after winning a maiden on her second outing 18 days ago. That was over today’s trip up at Beverley, where she made all, ran on strongly and was a good winner by 2.5 lengths.

The runner-up that day, Wapping, was allocated a mark of 78 and he ran out a winner by almost two lengths upon his reappearance at Bath yesterday, suggesting that a similar level of performance from Deodoro today should see her outrun her mark, if nothing else and for that, she’d be my pick at 2/1 BOG.

In opposition, I’d probably side with Primitivo, for despite being a four-race maiden, has improved with each run and was only beaten by three quarters of a length by a very progressive Simon Crisford 2yr old into second place last time out.

None of the other runners from that race have turned back out yet in the last 18 days, so there’s no subsequent form to follow, but the sheer fact that the next three horses home were a further 5, 7.5 and 15 lengths back suggests it wasa good effort from Primitivo who can be backed at 100/30 BOG here today.


5.20 Windsor :

You don’t often see Sam Waley-Cohen riding on the Flat, but in a race for “Gentleman Amateur Riders”, it’s often as much about the jockey’s ability than it is about the horses themselves and looking at the list of riders here, Sam’s name sticks out like a sore thumb, no disrespect intended elsewhere, of course.

And in Loving Your Work, he’s paired with probably the best horse here too. This 4yr old lost no credit in defeat last time out, when he was a runner-up to the improving Roly Tricks, who was completing a third win in four starts. Loving Your Work runs off the same mark to day and with such an esteemed jockey in the saddle, looks the best bet here at 7/4 BOG.

Of his rivals, the clear pick on form is the 3yr old filly Rum Swizzle, who is an interesting returnee (?) to turf action after a win and two runner-up finishes from four A/W runs lately. She was a winner three starts ago, beating a couple of subsequent winners and when last seen almost three weeks ago, was only headed very late on and lost by a short head.

The slight drop in trip should help her see this contest out a little better and although she’s up 2lbs for that run, her yard have a 5lb claimer on her back, which should make her more competitive at the weights, as will her 7lbs weight for age allowance. All things considered, Rum Swizzle should be in there pitching late on at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Deodoro / Loving Your Work @ 6.92/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Deodoro / Rum Swizzle @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Bet365, Betfair & BetVictor)
Primitivo / Loving Your Work @ 10.92/1 (10/3 & 7/4  :Bet365 & BetVictor)
Primitivo / Rum Swizzle @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : generally)

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