Double Dutch, 20th October 2015

Double Dutch, 20th October 2015

Monday provided us with one of those rare perfect DD days, comprising of…

2 races, 4 horses, 2 winners and 2 runners-up with the 2 longer priced selections winning. Odds aside, that’s as good as it gets and we came away with a 14.17/1 double, two exactas at 7.8/1 and 5.3/1 and for the few of us doing the forecast doubles, a payout at 28/1.

Happy days.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Primitivo : WON at 6/4 (adv 10/3)
Deodoro : 2nd at 100/30 (adv 2/1)
The exacta paid £8.80 here
Rum Swizzle : WON at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Loving Your Work : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid £6.30 here

Results to date:
703 winning selections from 2514 = 27.96%
224 winning bets in 652 days = 34.36%

Stakes: 1303.00pts
Returns: 1413.60pts
P/L : +110.60pts (+8.49% ROI)

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Looking to continue the good results with these…

2.40 Exeter :

Since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by 4 to 15 lengths last time out, 4 to 45 days ago, have won again on 219 of 833 (26.3% SR) occasions, generating 231.3pts (+27.8% ROI) level stakes profit from blindly backing them with no filters. Such runners are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 13.6pts (+97% ROI) here at Exeter and unusually (but ideal for DD purposes!), we have two qualifiers in the same race.

Drifter (7/2 BOG with Betway) was a winner at Perth six weeks ago by two lengths and then prevailed by 4.5 lengths at Sedgefield three weeks ago, both wins were over 2m4f and there’s a drop back in trip today which should hopefully compensate for the burden of an increase in weight to be carried.

Bulletproof (100/30 BOG) meanwhile, has gone one better and comes here having already secured a hat-trick in the last month and this 9yr old is in the form of his life. He landed back to back 2m 0.5f contests at Newton Abbot in mid/late Septermber, before coming here to Exeter 12 days ago to win by 5 lengths over 2m 1f.

The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue, he has stayed (and won) over further and despite rising in weights of late, there’s a feeling that Bulletproof might yet be one decent run ahead of the handicapper.


3.30 Lingfield :

Royal Acquisition (3/1 BOG gen) was a dual course and distance winner here at Lingfield, when trained by Robert Cowell, but switched to Ivan Furtado two months ago and was a winner over this trip at Redcar on his only run since moving yards. He was pretty comfortable in landing a big-field (17 ran!) by the best part of two lengths that day and an 8lb rise is neither too onerous nor probably enough to stop him here.

The runner-up from that contest four weeks ago, Keep It Dark, then stepped up to a higher grade than this to win next time out, which should bear well for the chances of Royal Acquisition here today.

Robert Cowell may well have lost that horse, but he remains in with a good shout of winning this contest anyway, as his 3yr old Dark Profit (9/2 BOG) will look to build upon an excellent run last time out, when he was a four lengths winner over this trip at Chelmsford nine weeks ago. That was also his first run for Mr Cowell, since a switch just a fortnight earlier from the Charlie Hills string and with more time under his belt in new surroundings, could well come on again.

There’s little/no collateral form from that last run, as it’s turning out to have been a pretty weak contest. Horses can, however, only beat what’s put in front of them and Dark Profit looked to have loads in reserveDark Profit despite hacking up, so at the odds quoted, we’re really just punting on potential improvement and I think that’s a fair bet.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Bulletproof / Royal Acquisition @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)
Bulletproof / Dark Profit @ 22.83/1 (10/3 & 9/2 : Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports & Totesport)
Drifter / Royal Acquisition @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Betway)
Drifter / Dark Profit @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : Betway)

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