Stat of the Day, 21st October 2015

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2015

Tuesday’s Result :

7.10 Wolverhampton : Musical Taste @ 11/2 BOG : won at 9/4 fav (Soon close 2nd, led 6f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well to win by a length and a quarter)

Tuesday’s selection runs in the…

4.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nice Future at 9/2 non-BOG (Betway) or 4/1 BOG (generally)

Why?

Here at Newmarket over the last four seasons, Saeed bin Suroor has enjoyed an overall 26.6% strike rate from his handicappers priced in the evens to 9/12 price range, as his 17 winners from 64 runners have produced level stakes profits of 36.7pts (+57.3% ROI).

His horses also tend to run well here when James Doyle sits on them and in that same 4 season time frame and at the same evens to 9/1 odds, James has ridden 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) for 22.6pts (+72.8% ROI)

Today sees this 2 yr old colt Nice Future stepping up in trip to make a handicap debut and he follows a pretty well-worn path that has brought Saeed bin Suroor plenty of success. In fact, since the start of 208, his handicap debutants are 67/276 (24.3% SR) for 36.7pts (+13.3% ROI) which are decent enough figures, but can be seen in a better light when placed in context of today’s race, as they are…

  • 67/264 *25.4% SR) for 48.7pts (+18.4% ROI) at Classes 2 to 5
  • 58/225 (25.6% SR) for 69.8pts (+31% ROI) at odds of 13/8 to 12/1
  • 54/196 (27.6% SR) for 57.1pts (+29.2% ROI) with male runners
  • 49/165 (29.7% SR) for 59.5pts (+36.1% ROI) with those running at the the same trip as last time out or stepping up in trip by up to 1.5f
  • 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 17.4pts (+32.8% ROI) with 2 yr olds
  • 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 35.1pts (+100.3% ROI) on the Newmarket turf.

And your micro? Males, aged 2 to 4, priced at 13/8 to 12/1 in class 2 to 5 handicaps at the same trip as LTO or stepped up by up to 2.5f are 43/123 (35% SR) for 97.3pts (+79.1% ROI). Of which 2yr olds are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 15.2pts (+52.4% ROI) and there’s a record of 8 wind from 20 (40% SR) for 42.3pts (+211.5% ROI) at Newmarket.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Nice Future at 9/2 non-BOG with Betway. 4/1 BOG is widely available, but I think the price will contract, but you can make your own call when you…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Newmarket

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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