Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2015

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2015

Wednesday’s Result :

4.55 Newmarket : Nice Future @ 4/1 BOG : 6th at 11/4 fav (Prominent, led over 3f out until ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Thursday’s selection runs in the…

8.55 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Slovak at 100/30 BOG (generally)

Why?

Firstly, she’s trained by James Tate who has had some success from a small number of winners at this venue this year, with 4 of his 20 representatives going on to win. All four winners came from the 10 runners sent off at odds of evens to 6/1 and these 10 runners have generated 10.51pts profit so far, broken down as follows…

  • females are 3 from 8 for 5.43pts
  • handicappers are 3 from 6 for 11.74pts
  • Class 5/6 runners are 3 from 5 for 12.75pts
  • 3 yr olds are 2 from 4 for 6.66pts
  • milers are 2 from 3 for 6.85pts

Slovak is, of course, a 3yr old filly running is a 1m handicap! She’ll be ridden by Adam Kirby today, who is 4 from 6 for 11.42pts on James Tate’s handicappers this year and despite none of those rides coming here at Chelmsford, Adam has a good record here of his own, winning 8 of 64 rides this year.

Of his 54 rides at the track this year his record on horses priced at 10/11 to 15/4 stands at 7 winners from 20(35% SR) for 4.61pts (+23.1% ROI) profit and with his ride on Slovak in mind, those 20 runners are…

  • 5/16 for 2.9pts in handicaps
  • 4/8 for 7.6pts on 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 for 5.8pts over 1m/1m2f
  • 4/7 for 5.9pts at Class 5
  • 3/5 for 3.9pts on females

Slovak was a winner at Wolverhampton two starts and 48 days ago before a four week break ahead of a return to the same track to finish 4th, beaten by 2.25 lengths 20 days ago. Both of those races were over 7f and she now steps up to a mile and runs off the same mark as last time out.

Since the start of 2012 horses aged 3 to 5 running at a mile or shorter 16 to 60 days after a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish last time out and who had won their penultimate outing, then returned to winning ways on 331 of 1882 (17.6% SR) occasions, producing 274.7pts of level stakes profits.

1882 is a lot of bets from one angle in less than 4 yrs, so let’s break it down slightly…

  • those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 are 264/1353 (19.5% SR) for 198pts (+14.6% ROI)
  • those beaten by a short head to 3 lengths (max) are 245/1262 (19.4% SR) for 243.8pts (+19.3% ROI)
  • females are 120/695 (17.3% SR) for 131.3pts (+18.9% ROI)
  • those stepping up a furlong are 51/314 (16.2% SR) for 92.5pts (+29.5% ROI)
  • Chelmsford runners are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 20.9pts (+87% ROI)

And if you take those beaten by more than a neck to 3 lengths and now run at the same trip or a furlong longer at odds of 7/4 to 9/1, you have 123 winners from 526 runners, with this 10-12 runners per month micro having a 23.4 % strike rate and an ROI of 39.4% via 207.3pts profit.

Of that 536-runner micro, those running off the same mark as that defeat LTO are 62/233 (26.6% SR) for 164.3pts (+70.5% ROI), which at around 5 bets per month is a very handy one to keep an eye out for.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Slovak at 100/30 BOG with either of 10Bet or Coral, as they both offer refunds on a defeat by a head or less. Several other firms are also offering 100/30 BOG without that insurance, so if you need/want to use an alternative bookie…

…click here for the betting on the 8.55 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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