Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2015
Wednesday’s Result :
4.55 Newmarket : Nice Future @ 4/1 BOG : 6th at 11/4 fav (Prominent, led over 3f out until ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)
Thursday’s selection runs in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Slovak at 100/30 BOG (generally)
Firstly, she’s trained by James Tate who has had some success from a small number of winners at this venue this year, with 4 of his 20 representatives going on to win. All four winners came from the 10 runners sent off at odds of evens to 6/1 and these 10 runners have generated 10.51pts profit so far, broken down as follows…
- females are 3 from 8 for 5.43pts
- handicappers are 3 from 6 for 11.74pts
- Class 5/6 runners are 3 from 5 for 12.75pts
- 3 yr olds are 2 from 4 for 6.66pts
- milers are 2 from 3 for 6.85pts
Slovak is, of course, a 3yr old filly running is a 1m handicap! She’ll be ridden by Adam Kirby today, who is 4 from 6 for 11.42pts on James Tate’s handicappers this year and despite none of those rides coming here at Chelmsford, Adam has a good record here of his own, winning 8 of 64 rides this year.
Of his 54 rides at the track this year his record on horses priced at 10/11 to 15/4 stands at 7 winners from 20(35% SR) for 4.61pts (+23.1% ROI) profit and with his ride on Slovak in mind, those 20 runners are…
- 5/16 for 2.9pts in handicaps
- 4/8 for 7.6pts on 3 yr olds
- 4/8 for 5.8pts over 1m/1m2f
- 4/7 for 5.9pts at Class 5
- 3/5 for 3.9pts on females
Slovak was a winner at Wolverhampton two starts and 48 days ago before a four week break ahead of a return to the same track to finish 4th, beaten by 2.25 lengths 20 days ago. Both of those races were over 7f and she now steps up to a mile and runs off the same mark as last time out.
Since the start of 2012 horses aged 3 to 5 running at a mile or shorter 16 to 60 days after a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish last time out and who had won their penultimate outing, then returned to winning ways on 331 of 1882 (17.6% SR) occasions, producing 274.7pts of level stakes profits.
1882 is a lot of bets from one angle in less than 4 yrs, so let’s break it down slightly…
- those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 are 264/1353 (19.5% SR) for 198pts (+14.6% ROI)
- those beaten by a short head to 3 lengths (max) are 245/1262 (19.4% SR) for 243.8pts (+19.3% ROI)
- females are 120/695 (17.3% SR) for 131.3pts (+18.9% ROI)
- those stepping up a furlong are 51/314 (16.2% SR) for 92.5pts (+29.5% ROI)
- Chelmsford runners are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 20.9pts (+87% ROI)
And if you take those beaten by more than a neck to 3 lengths and now run at the same trip or a furlong longer at odds of 7/4 to 9/1, you have 123 winners from 526 runners, with this 10-12 runners per month micro having a 23.4 % strike rate and an ROI of 39.4% via 207.3pts profit.
Of that 536-runner micro, those running off the same mark as that defeat LTO are 62/233 (26.6% SR) for 164.3pts (+70.5% ROI), which at around 5 bets per month is a very handy one to keep an eye out for.
And my recommended bet?
1pt win on Slovak at 100/30 BOG with either of 10Bet or Coral, as they both offer refunds on a defeat by a head or less. Several other firms are also offering 100/30 BOG without that insurance, so if you need/want to use an alternative bookie…
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