Double Dutch, 22nd October 2015

Double Dutch, 22nd October 2015

Two winners and two third place finishes on Wednesday meant a second win of the week and at SPs of 2/1 and 3/1, a very handy 11/1 payout was secured.

Our third placers weren’t too far way from securing the forecasts for us, but a miss is as good as a mile, they say!

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Lady of Longstone : WON at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Amour D’Or : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Replenish : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Grey Morning : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
706 winning selections from 2522 = 27.99%
225 winning bets in 654 days = 34.40%

Stakes: 1307.00pts
Returns: 1419.60pts
P/L : +112.60pts (+8.62% ROI)

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These are Thursday’s selected races…

3.25 Carlisle :

Hadfield (7/4 BOG) was impressive on debut two starts ago when winning by 4.5 lengths at Worcester seven weeks ago, taking the lead after the last hurdle and asserting himself on the run-in. Things didn’t quite go to plan on his only other run, but he still managed to finish second of ten at Perth four weeks ago.

He made mistakes 3 out and 2 out, whilst struggling to concede a whole stone to the winner, who only beat him by six lengths, despite the weight advantage and the two errors. The boot is on the other foot here, for as a 3yo in an open age handicap, he gets a 17lbs weight allowance, which should tip the balance in his favour in a bid to overturn…

…the in-form Shear Rock, who comes here seeking a four-timer over hurdles, having won at both Bangor and Market Rasen in May/June, before a break of 119 days ahead of his hat-trick attempt, which he duly completed by five lengths at Fontwell three weeks ago and comes here in the form of his life.

There is every possiblilty that at 9/4 BOG he can win again, to take his record at Class 3 to 3 wins from 4 and his record under Richard Johnson to 4 from 5, but top weight might just be the undoing of Shear Rock today.


7.25 Chelmsford :

I like the way Kalon Brama (4/1 BOG) has gone about her business  since a decision was made to focus her activities here at Chelmsford. Her last five outings have all been at this venue over the past seven weeks and she has won three times from the five races and has a runner-up finish in a sequence reading 41112.

She’s 2 from 3 over course and distance with today’s jockey and can generally be relied upon to be there or thereabouts. Stamina isn’t an issue, as she also won here over 1m2f last month, which is just as well as she’s now some 17lbs higher than the start of this run.

She was, however, beaten by three quarters of a length over track and trip last time out, when she failed to reel in the re-opposing Mezzotint (3/1 BOG), who I fancy to be there or thereabouts again today under Oisin Murphy who has a good record here at this track.

Things didn’t quite go Mezzotint‘s way last time out, when beaten by two lengths at Wolverhampton, as he found himself short of room and outpaced late on, dropping down a furlong and up in weight by 6lbs. Fewer runners here, a 4lb easing of his mark and the return to a mile should ensure another interesting tussle with Kalon Brama, though.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Hadfield / Mezzotint @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Coral, BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Hadfield / Kalon Brama @ 12.75/1 (7/4 & 4/1 : Generally)
Shear Rock / Mezzotint @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Hills)
Shear Rock / Kalon Brama @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Hills)

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