Double Dutch, 23rd October 2015

Double Dutch, 23rd October 2015

Hadfield beat Shear Rock by two lengths after they were side by side approaching the last hurdle and with the next horse a further 10 lengths back, a simple 1-2 was landed, complete with the added bonus of a 4.9/1 exacta.

Then, 4 hrs later, Kalon Brama was a big drifter out to 6/1 and he beat Mezzotint by a length and a quarter, as I’d hoped he might, but we failed to land the near-22/1 double as Royal Altitude hung on to win by half a length to deny us.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Hadfield : WON at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Shear Rock : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
The Exacta paid £5.90 here
Kalon Brama : 2nd at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
Mezzotint : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
707 winning selections from 2526 = 27.99%
225 winning bets in 655 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1309.00pts
Returns: 1419.60pts
P/L : +110.60pts (+8.45% ROI)


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These are Friday’s selected races…

3.00 Newbury :

A pair of last time out winners having their fourth runs and also their handicap debuts head the market and I think the bookies have got it right.

Taurean Star showed plenty of promise in finishing fourth on each of his first two starts over 7f, but didn’t have anything to give in the latter stages. He was then dropped to today’s 6f trip for a tricky 16-runner maiden on softer ground at Ascot and he managed to get off the mark that day by a head.

The horses behind him that day have produced some decent efforts since, the runner-up has finished second again and the third placed horse has gone on to win, whilst one of those further back in the pack has made the frame in a Class 3 contest, suggesting Taurean Star might have more to give here and can be backed at 5/2 BOG in places.

The main challenge is expected to come from the improving Silken Skies, who was badly outpaced on debut over 5f at Windsor on quick ground, but was then third at the same venue over 6f on good to firm, suggesting she’s better off at this trip.

For her third/last run, she headed up to Haydock four weeks ago, where she encountered soft ground for the first time and led from a couple of furlongs and despite being pressed in the closing stages, was able to hold off the challenge of course specialists Dascombe & Kingscote. If you think she can go in again, you can get 100/30 BOG about Silken Skies this morning.


4.10 Newbury :

William Haggas has a good record with handicap debutants, especially those stepped up in trip and whilst we’re not entirely sure just how good the 7/4 BOG Predominance is likely to be, his trainer’s stats make him of immediate interest here. What is certain, is that he’s unexposed after just one run and he won that race well.

He landed a 7f maiden at Chepstow on debut, pretty much running on his own for the last furlong and was in such a commanding position that, despite easing towards the line, he still got home by a good six lengths. The form from that race hasn’t, admittedly, panned put to much, but for a debut, it was impressive enough and you can only beat what you’re faced with.

I think that Predominance is, however, a little too short in the market, considering he’s up against a more experienced rival like Second Wave, a winner three times already from five starts and never out of the frame (11321). He’s 2 from 3 at this trip and 2 from 3 under William Buick and seems to be getting better with each run.

The fact that he’s never encountered soft ground before, must be the reason why he’s as long as 4/1 BOG, but that looks a decent price to me. His yard is in good nick of late, but only sends this one runner here today and they might be confident of covering their expenses with Second Wave.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Taurean Star / Predominance @ 7.54/1 (9/4 & 13/8 : Hills)
Taurean Star / Second Wave @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair & Betway)
Silken Skies / Predominance @ 10.38/1 (10/3 & 13/8 : generally)
Silken Skies / Second Wave @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)

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