Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2015
Thursday’s Result :
8.55 Chelmsford : Slovak @ 100/30 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, soon hung right, kept on well)
Friday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Wheat Sheaf @ 7/2 BOG
This 3 yr old was last seen going down by a short head as a runner-up at Wolverhampton 10 days ago and now not only steps up a grade, but is also asked to go an extra 2 furlongs for his third handicap start, making him of interest for a couple of reasons.
- Since the start of 2009, Roger Charlton’s horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out and then reappear 4 to 15 days later, have gone on to win 27 of 71 races with that 38% strike rate generating 43.5pts profit at an ROI of 61.3%, with those beaten by less than four lengths LTO winning 25 of 63 (39.7% SR) for 46.1pts (+73.2% ROI).
- And in that same 2009-15 time frame, Roger’s 3 yr old handicappers running at the same class or within 1 class (up or down!) of their last run, but are stepped up in trip by at least 2 furlongs and have made less than 5 handicap starts are 14 from 66 (21.2% SR) for 29.7pts (+45% ROI).
Of those runners, the ones with less than 3 previous hcp runs are 12/56 (21.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+43.4% ROI) and those running at trips of 1m to 1m3.5f are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+103.8% ROI).
And my recommended bet?
1pt win on Wheat Sheaf at 7/2 BOG with either of Hills or Paddy Power, but if you need to see what the other firms are offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS