Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2015

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2015

Thursday’s Result :

8.55 Chelmsford : Slovak @ 100/30 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, soon hung right, kept on well)

Friday’s selection runs in the…

4.20 Doncaster :

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Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wheat Sheaf @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old was last seen going down by a short head as a runner-up at Wolverhampton 10 days ago and now not only steps up a grade, but is also asked to go an extra 2 furlongs for his third handicap start, making him of interest for a couple of reasons.

  1. Since the start of 2009, Roger Charlton’s horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out and then reappear 4 to 15 days later, have gone on to win 27 of 71 races with that 38% strike rate generating 43.5pts profit at an ROI of 61.3%, with those beaten by less than four lengths LTO winning 25 of 63 (39.7% SR) for 46.1pts (+73.2% ROI).
  2. And in that same 2009-15 time frame, Roger’s 3 yr old handicappers running at the same class or within 1 class (up or down!) of their last run, but are stepped up in trip by at least 2 furlongs and have made less than 5 handicap starts are 14 from 66 (21.2% SR) for 29.7pts (+45% ROI).

    Of those runners, the ones with less than 3 previous hcp runs are 12/56 (21.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+43.4% ROI) and those running at trips of 1m to 1m3.5f are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+103.8% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Wheat Sheaf at 7/2 BOG with either of Hills or Paddy Power, but if you need to see what the other firms are offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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