Stat of the Day, 24th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2015

Friday’s Result :

4.20 Doncaster : Wheat Sheaf @ 7/2 BOG : 3rd at 11/2 (Close up, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace final furlong, lost 2nd final strides)

Saturday’s selection runs in the…

3.00 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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What About Carlo @ 8/1 E/W BOG

Why?

He’s a C&D winner from just two starts ago and although beaten into fourth place by just over four lengths last time out, has still won two of his last three starts, all over today’s 1m2f trip.

He is 5/15 at 1m/1m2f and 3 from 9 at today’s distance and has won three times in Class 2 company.

When running after a break of 9 to 25 days since his last run, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 29.8pts (+330.8% ROI) profits, whilst at odds of 4/1 to 12/1, he has 5 wins from 12 (41.7% ROI) for profits of 41.5pts (+346% ROI).

With finishing 114 in his last three contests, he joins 845 other runners since the start of 2012, who fulfil the following criteria…

3 to 5 yr olds on the Flat, priced at 5/1 or longer running at a trip shorter than 1m4f, 21 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out and who had won their previous race before that. It’s not as complex as it looks (they need to have form figures of 12, 13 or 14!)

As I said above, there has been 845 such runners since the start of 2012 and with 97 winners (11.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 294.3pts (+34.8% ROI), it’s one worth looking out for.

A micro producing around 30 bets per month might well be too much action for some people, so you can still be profitable from this if you restricted yourself to…

  • those beaten by 0.25 to 5 lengths LTO : 74/582 (12.7% SR) for 280.9pts (48.3% ROI)
  • Class 1 & 2 runners : 58/273 (10.3% SR) for 117.4pts (+43% ROI)
  • Good to Soft ground : 16/130 (12.3% SR) for 48.1pts (+37% ROI)
  • Newbury runners : 6/41 (14.6% SR) for 13.1pts (+32% ROI)

Or you could take those beaten by 0.25 to 5 lengths LTO now running at classes 1 to 4 on good to soft or better for 47 winners from 323 (14.6% SR) for 233.7pts at an ROI of 72.3%, with those running here at Newbury winning 4 of 25 (16% SR) for 13.1pts (+52.4% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 0.5pt E/W bet on What About Carlo at 8/1 BOG with either of Bet365, BetVictor and/or Hills, whilst Betway are the same price, but don’t go BOG until 10.00am and have a minimum £10 stake to get BOG.

To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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