Double Dutch, 24th October 2015
Fifth and eighth of eight runners wasn’t the kind of start I was hoping for on Friday, but that’s what we got and with both selections well beaten, race 2 was more of a pride salvaging operation than anything else.
Unfortunately, though, Predominance couldn’t reel in the leader and went down by a head with our other runner, Second Wave back in third place.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Taurean Star : 5th at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Silken Skies : 8th at 7/1 (adv 10/3)
Predominance : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 13/8)
Second Wave : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
707 winning selections from 2530 = 27.94%
225 winning bets in 656 days = 34.30%
P/L : +108.60pts (+8.28% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Saturday’s selected races…
Zonderland‘s 1.5 length defeat in a similar standard of race last time out sets the standard here and he was far from disgraced that day at Newmarket a month ago. On the face of it, it was a fairly narrow defeat, but closer analysis shows he might well have been unlucky too, as he was making good headway before having his path blocked and then he got bumped.
Prior to that outing, he had won impressively by five furlongs on debut at Kempton, showing a swift turn of foot and versatility regarding ground conditions, a facet he might well need to display again here today, if he’s to regain that winning feeling at 15/8 BOG.
In opposition, there probably won’t be too much between Start Time and Crazy Horse and whilst Crazy Horse was a winner on debut, he did look quite green and this might be too big a step up in quality so soon after that debut run. He’s bred to be good enough to win races like this, but I think Start Time‘s extra experience will make the difference here.
Start Time has finished 2211 in his four starts to date and he is proven on soft ground, as shown by a 4.5 length win at Windsor over 8.5f last time out. Prior to that, he had won over today’s trip on good to soft ground at Thirsk, so neither the distance nor the ground should be his undoing here and if the fav doesn’t like the cut underfoot, then this could well go to Start Time at 9/2 BOG.
This time of year is renowned as being a time to follow the Twiston-Davies string and in the 15/8 BOG Mont Choisy, he’s got an in-form stayer who has excelled since joining the yard in June winning three times and finishing as runner-up twice from just five runs. He’s 2 from 4 over hurdles and I’d expect him to handle the step up to 3 miles readily enough.
He won a 3m PTP on heavy ground at Farmaclaffley back in February, which says stamina shouldn’t be an issue and he has already won over 2m7f on soft ground, as well as getting within three quarters of a length of Hunt Ball over that same trip, despite the 135-rated Hunt Ball being 3lbs well in at the weights.
The big danger is likely to be Miss Serious, who not only brings decent (and winning) form at this trip to the table, but she also gets a very useful 12lbs mares’ allowance, which could make this an interesting contest late on. She’s 3 from 6 over hurdles to date with today’s jockey Nick Schofield on board for three wins from five outings.
Miss Serious has won twice over hurdles at 2m6f and also won over this 3m trip at Southwell three starts ago, when she beat a couple of subsequent winners on her way to completing her hat-trick and if arriving here in the same form, the 4/1 BOG on offer from Betfair might look quite big later on.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Zonderland / Mont Choisy @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Coral)
Zonderland / Miss Serious @ 12.75/1 (7/4 & 4/1 : Betfair)
Start Time / Mont Choisy @ 13.38/1 (4/1 & 15/8 : Betfair)
Start Time / Miss Serious @ 24/1 (4/1 & 4/1 : Betfair)