Double Dutch, 26th October 2015

Double Dutch, 26th October 2015

It was a pair of runner-up finishes for us on Saturday and Sod’s Law ws in full operation to make the day even more frustrating. I’d narrowed race 1 down to three runners and the discard pipped us to victory by just a nose in a really tight finish (the next two runners were only a further nose and then a head back).

This meant race was a dead rubber, but one I still wanted to win, but Mont Choisy couldn’t reel in the winner who made all and was pretty comfortable in his near three lengths victory.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Start Time : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Zonderland : 5th at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Mont Choisy : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Miss Serious : 4th at 10/3 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
707 winning selections from 2534 = 27.90%
225 winning bets in 657 days = 34.25%

Stakes: 1313.00pts
Returns: 1419.60pts
P/L : +106.60pts (+8.12% ROI)

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These are Monday’s selected races…

2.15 Ayr :

The natural starting point here has to be the hat-trick seeking Love The Leader (7/4 BOG), as he comes here after winning by 7 lengths over 2m7f at Market Rasen nine ago and then by four lengths over 2m4.5f at Plumpton this time last week.

His 7lb penalty is negated by his jockey’s 7lb claim and it is hoped that Love The Leader will be able to extend relatively-new trainer Johnny Farrelly’s excellent record in handicap hurdles, where he is already 11/39 (28.2% SR) for 25.9pts (+66.3% ROI) with runners price below 7/1 since the start of 2014.

Andhaar, on the other hand, comes here unpenalised for a win last time out, as his 7 length victory at Kelso on Saturday was in a conditional jockeys’ race over 2m 6.5f with seemingly plenty in hand. Saturday’s jockey Blair Campbell was taking 5lbs off the OR of 100 that day, but gets a 10lb claim here which should really make Andhaar very competitive at 7/2 BOG.


4.05 Leicester :

Keenes Pointe comes here in cracking form, with six consecutive top three finishes and was only beaten by a head at Ayr last time out. He clearly gets on well with today’s jockey who has ridden him four times to date and they’ve made the frame each time and I don’t expect the step back up to 7f to be an issue and the soft ground shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience.

And despite Keenes Pointe hitting the crossbar so often, his trainer Kristin Stubbs has a good record in Flat handicaps with runners priced at 11/2 or shorter, as 17 of 58 (29.3% SR) have been successful, producing level stakes profits of 33.6pts (+58% ROI) over the last three seasons, making this runner of obvious interest at 3/1 BOG, but the fear is that he may once again prove to be second best, behind…

…the 11/4 BOG (Betfair ) Uncle Dermot, who was in decent form prior to his last outing at Goodwood, where he rather ruined his own chances by playing up prior to the start and then going off way too hard to sustain his effort on soft ground.

Yet, just a week earlier, he had only gone down by three quarters of a length on heavy ground at Ffos Las, finishing ahead of two subsequent winners in the shape of Port Lairge and Twenty One Choice and if returning to that level of form, Uncle Dermot would have to warrant serious consideration today, especially with the benefit of having had almost two months rest.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Love The Leader / Uncle Dermot @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Paddy Power & Stan James)
Love The Leader / Keenes Pointe @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Andhaar / Uncle Dermot @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Andhaar / Keenes Pointe @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Bet365)

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