Double Dutch, 27th October 2015

Double Dutch, 27th October 2015

A good start to the week with a pair of winners, a runner-up and a fourth place finish, as Love The Leader led Andhaar by a length at Ayr, providing us with a bonus exacta of a 13/1 or so payout.

Then later at Leicester, Keenes Point was convincingly beaten into fourth place by a good six lengths, but thankfully the winner, Uncle Dermot, was one of ours and this success ensured a 13/1 double to kick off the week in style.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Love The Leader : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Andhaar : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
The exacta paid out at 6.7/1 here.
Uncle Dermot : WON at 10/3 (adv 5/2)
Keenes Pointe : 4th at 7/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
709 winning selections from 2538 = 27.94%
226 winning bets in 658 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1315.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +111.64pts (+8.49% ROI)

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These are Tuesday’s selected races…

1.55 Bangor :

0 from 5 in bumpers and 0 from 12 over hurdles wouldn’t normally make a horse a 2/1 BOG favourite, but Fred Le Macon is probably the solid form prospect here today, such is the “quality” of this race. Seven top four finishes this year from his seven starts shows reliability and consistency over trips of 1m7.5f through to 2m6f and on ground ranging from good right down to heavy.

Unlike many runners in such conditional jockey events, he’s not “trading down” from an established pro jockey to a claimer here, as he’s well used to being handled by 10lb claimers of late. The yard is in good form (5/21 in the last fortnight) and their horses tend to go well here and this probably represents Fred Le Macon‘s easiest task to date and he comes here off the back of just a 1.75 length defeat last time out.

Bears Rails, on the other hand, comes here lightly raced, fresh and unexposed. Just six starts to date (3 over hurdles), he has had a 203 day rest and now makes his handicap debut in a contest that shouldn’t take too much winning here at around 100/30 BOG, if truth be told.

When last seen, Bear Rails was third of nine, sent off at 25/1 at Newton Abbot and since 2008, handicap hurdle debutants with just 3 to 6 previous hurdles runs running more than 3 weeks after they were sent off at 25/1 or bigger were winners on handicap debut in 80 of 390 (20.5% SR) races for profits of 64.7pts at an ROI of 16.6%


2.50 Catterick :

Sinakar joined David O’Meara’s string in August and after a couple of sighters over inadequately short trips in the autumn for his new yard, was a winner on handicap debut over 1m5f at Ayr 19 days ago. He was doing all his best work late on, having been kept in trhe rear for the most part by today’s jockey Danny Tudhope, who gave the 4 yr old a well timed run to the head of affairs to win by a head.

Sinakar looked to have plenty more to give and should relish the step up in trip again today under a jockey having a fine season with 76 winners from 434 (17.5% SR) since the start of the year and if you’d had a tenner on all of Danny’s rides, you’d now be just over £1300 (+30% ROI) better off. He also has a 17.4% SR for David O’Meara over the last four years and this suggests a 9/4 BOG bet on Sinakar could well be a good one.

He won’t, however, have it all his own way and there are a couple here that might trouble him (it’s at this point I risk invoking Sod’s Law and picking the wrong one!) and there’s little to choose between Grams And Ounces and Rock On Bollinski. Both have won 2 of their last three outings, both have won at this trip and both have won under today’s jockeys.

I am, however, going to side with Grams And Ounces, who will carry 16lbs less than his rival here and stamina isn’t asn issue for a horse that is 2 from 4 at 2m4f, yet als0 possesses enough ground speed to have won three times at 9.5/10 furlongs in the past. It’ll probably be a close run thing, but in soft conditions over 2 miles, 16lbs is a big difference, just tipping the balance towards this 7/2 BOG prospect.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Fred Le Macon / Sinakar @ 8.35/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : generally)
Fred Le Macon / Grams And Ounces @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Betway)
Bears Rails / Sinakar @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Betway)
Bears Rails / Grams And Ounces @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betway)

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