Double Dutch, 28th October 2015

Double Dutch, 28th October 2015

An awful day yesterday, probably best quickly forgotten, as Fred Le Macon and Berars Rails were beaten by 19 lengths and 43 lengths respectively at Bangor, ahead of the fancied Grams And Ounces only finishing 8th of 9 and also beaten by around 43 lengths at Catterick.

The “highlight” of the day, if you can call it that, was Sinakar’s runner-up effort at 3/1, where he just failed to hang on to the lead, going down by a head.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Fred Le Macon : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Bears Rails : 4th at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Sinakar : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Grams And Ounces : 8th at 9/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
709 winning selections from 2542 = 27.89%
226 winning bets in 659 days = 34.29%

Stakes: 1317.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +109.64pts (+8.32% ROI)


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These are Wednesday’s selected races…

1.50 Nottingham :

Backing Mick Channon’s 2 yr olds in sellers priced at 4/1 or shorter over the last five seasons has proven to be a worthwhile venture, as his 20 winners from 46 runners (43.5% SR) have generated level stakes profits of 17.1pts at an ROI of 37.2% and he is represented by the lightly raced, 15/8 BOG favourite Custom for this one.

This is just her fourth start to date and although 6f was far too short for her last time out, she was a decent third two runs ago, albeit only over 7f. That was at Salisbury on soft ground and she was only really run out of it late on when she couldn’t match the finishing pace of her rivals.

This longer trip would seem to be a better option for her and Custom‘s chances are boosted by the booking of Paul Hanagan who is 10/16 (62.5% SR) for 23.4pts (+146.4% ROI) here at Nottingham on 2/3 yr olds at 5/1 or shorter over the last two seasons.

In opposition, I’m going to side with Q Ten Girl at 5/2 BOG, who stands out from the pack here, in a race where the 7 runners have a combined record of 1 win from 35 attempts, by virtue of being the only previous winner. She’s not overexposed after nine starts, but does have the advantage of experience and her win came two starts ago, taking her recent record to 1 win and 3 other placed finishes from her last six runs and she never seems to get beaten by far.

She’s rated (OR) as the best in this contest, but despite running her best races on the A/W, she does possess the best form here and if handling the switch back to turf, then Q Ten Girl might not find an easier route back to the winners’ enclosure than this today.


6.35 Dundalk :

Kodiac’s Back has been in tremendous form of late, winning twice and finishing as a runner-up twice in his last six starts (174122). The last three of those efforts came here at Dundalk with a win and a dead heat for second over a mile, before dropping back in trip to today’s 7f  twelve days ago where he just failed by half a length to concede a stone to the eventual winner. He was hampered in his late progress, which was possibly all that stopped him reeling in that winner.

Trainer David Marnane’s horses have been running well of late with 7 wins from 29 (24.1% SR) for 48.2pts (+166.3% ROI) profit over the last two months and with Kodiac’s Back also continuing to shine recently, there’s every chance he could go in again this evening at 5/2 BOG.

Doc Holliday, on the other hand, hasn’t won for 14 months and 11 races, but has won twice and placed a further six times from 15 races on the A/W track here and doesn’t seem to get left too far behind in those defeats. After that last win, he was raised to an almost impossible mark of 81, but was a decent third here last time out, beaten by less than 2.5 lengths off a much reduced mark of 65.

Running off 65 again today would give him a great chance, but despite that decent run five days ago, the assessor seems to have finally taken pity on him and dropped him another 5lbs today. There was market confidence in him last time out, as he was sent off as favourite and Doc Holliday could well go off a fair bit shorter than his current 7/2 BOG odds.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Custom / Kodiac’s Back @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Hills)
Custom / Doc Holliday @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport)
Q Ten Girl / Kodiac’s Back @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Q Ten Girl / Doc Holliday @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Bet365)

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