Stat of the Day, 29th October 2015
Wednesday’s Result :
3.40 Fakenham : Road To Freedom @ 100/30 BOG : 2nd at 5/2 fav (Held up towards rear, hampered 1st, headway 11th, ridden and pressed winner from 2 out, every chance until just held near finish) and was Lucy Wadham’s only loser from three Fakenham runners, hopefully some of you took the hint and backed the others?
Thursday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Grey Mirage @ 12/1 BOG E/W
Well, unless I’ve really read this race wrongly (too many r’s!), this is a massive price and as part of my remit is to provide value, this fits the bill on that score.
But there is also some statistical data to back up my opinion. Firstly, I want to look at trainer Marco Botti and his record here on this A/W track and we find that since the start of 2010, his runners here priced in the 9/2 to 16/1 odds range have won 15 of 122 races (12.3% SR) for profits of 63.8pts at an ROI of 52.3%.
Of those 122 runners, those competing at trips of 6f to a mile are 12/86 (14% SR) for 79.1pts (+92% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8/60 (13.3% SR) for 29.4pts (+49% ROI).
Also, we should consider the performance the performance of Signor Botti’s handicappers who were winners last time out and are now returning to the scene of a previous course and distance win, as since the start of 2011, these runners are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for 8.75pts (+24.3% ROI) with a total of 25 of the 36 (69.4% SR) making the frame for similar profits of 8.72pts (+24.2% ROI), making these runners ideal for an E/W bet.
Jockey Oisin Murphy is in great form of late, riding four winners yesterday and he’s 11 from 45 (24.4% SR) for 33.3pts (+74.1% ROI) here at Lingfield this year with a record of 7 wins from 22 rides (31.8% SR) on male horses that has produced profits of 22.3pts (+101.4% ROI).
And finally to the horse, Grey Mirage himself…
He has already won 7 of his 20 starts on the A/W to date and is 7/19 at 7f to a mile, he’s 7/18 on Polytrack, 5 from 15 at Class 2 and 4 from 11 here at Lingfield.
One Lingfield race was on turf, so he’s actually 4/10 on the polytrack here. He has won three of the nine races of 12 or more runners and is as you probably deduced earlier, a former course and distance winner.
And in Class 2 races on the Lingfield A/W track over trips of 7f/1m, Grey Mirage is 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 6.44pts (+80.5% ROI).
And my recommended bet?
A 0.5pt E/W bet on Grey Mirage at 12/1 BOG with either Coral, Boylesports and/or Seanie Mac.
I’ve gone with Coral for the defeat by a head refund (would have been handy on Wednesday!), but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS