Stat of the Day, 31st October 2015
Friday’s Result :
1.50 Uttoxeter : Out of the Mist @ 3/1 BOG : WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, mistake 2nd, headway before 6th, challenged 2 out, led before last, stayed on well)
Saturday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Banksea @ 11/4 BOG
Luca Cumani’s horses are finishing the season well with 14 wins from 49 (28.6% SR) for 70.6pts (+144.1% ROI) profit and gives a handicap debut to a horse that was a 33/1 winner on debut at Yarmouth last time out, a little over 6 weeks ago.
And since 2009, Luca’s Flat handicap debutants have won 41 of 165 (24.9% SR) for 61.3pts (+37.2% ROI), and with today’s race in mind…
- runners over 7f to 1m4f are 41/154 (26.6% SR) for 72.3pts (+47% ROI)
- those priced 6/4 to 12/1 are 38/146 (26% SR) for 73.3pts (+50.2% ROI)
- those stepping up a class are 13/56 (23.2% SR) for 2.93pts (+5.24% ROI)
- those stepped up by 2f are 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 16.1pts (53.7% ROI)
- good to soft ground runners are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+128.4% ROI)
- those ridden by Andrea Atzeni are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+95.9% ROI)
I should also add that horses who won at odds of 25/1 and bigger last time out and now run at 8/1 or shorter in the same grade or up 1 class are 136/649 (21% SR) for 107.1pts (+16.5% ROI) since the start of 2010 with Flat handicap debutants winning 13 of 45 (28.9% SR) for 26pts (+57.7% ROI).
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Banksea at 11/4 BOG with either of Betfair Sports, Betfred, SkyBet and/or Totesport although the latter don’t go BOG until the morning of the race. I’ve chosen to go with Betfair, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS