Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015
Monday’s Result :
2.40 Ludlow : Ascendant @ 6/1 BOG : 3rd at 8/1 (Chasing leaders when in view after 2nd, led after 4 out, headed when in view last, lost 2nd close home)
Tuesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Vibrato Valtat @ 100/30 BOG
Rather than one headline stat to draw other details from, there are a few reasons behind this selection.
- Trainer Paul Nicholls‘ horses are in great nick at the moment, as typified by 13 winners from 35 (37.1% SR) for 12.62pts (+36.1% ROI) in the last fortnight. Today’s jockey Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 7 of those winners from 21 attempts (33.3% SR) and Paul’s chasers have contributed 7 wins from 19 (36.8% SR) for 8.85pts (+46.6% ROI) profit, with Sam riding 4 winners from 11.
- Sam Twiston-Davies‘ record in chases here at Exeter since the start of 2013 has 5 wins from 29 (17.2% SR) for 10.35pts (+35.7% ROI) with handicaps showing 4 wins from 25 (16% SR) for 13.11pts (+52.44% ROI).
- Since 2008, Paul Nicholls’ Exeter chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter over trips of 2m4f and shorter are 20/47 (42.6% SR) for 12.2pts (+26% ROI), with those competing on Good to Soft/Soft ground winning 16 of 31 (51.6% SR) for 20.65pts (+66.6% ROI).
- On soft ground with chasers priced at evens to 10/1 the Nicholls/Twiston-Davies combo are 12 from 39 (30.8% SR) for 25.6pts (65.7% ROI).
- Vibrato Valtat seems to have an ideal profle for today’s encounter, boasting a record of 6/18 in jumps contests (4/8 in chases) to date and with this contest in mind, his figures are…
6/15 at odds of 5/1 and shorter (4/6 in chases)
6/14 on ground good to soft or worse (4/7 in chases)
6/9 in fields of 4 to 6 runners (4/6 in chases)
3/8 going right handed (2/3 in chases)
3/8 with Sam Twiston-Davies (2/6 in chases)
3/8 on soft ground (3/4 in chases)
2/3 in Grade 2 events (2/3 in Gr 2 chases)
1/1 here at Exeter (no chase run here yet)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Vibrato Valtat at 100/30 BOG with Betfred / Totesport, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS