Double Dutch, 3rd November 2015

Double Dutch, 3rd November 2015

That’s now three days on the bounce where we’ve ended up with a winner / runner-up combo and it’s certainly frustrating me!

Ya Hafed defied what looked a too-big 5/1 morning price to get up late on to win by a length, but the best we could get 35 minutes later was second place from Killabraher Cross on a day where our two longer priced runners performed best.

In fairness, we weren’t really that close to landing the 17/1 souble, as the margin of defeat in that second race was all of 14 lengths. But we’ll try again today!

Monday’s results were as follows:

Ya Hafed : WON at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
The Cider Maker : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 13/8)
Killabraher Cross : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Dancing Dik : 4th at 2/1 (adv 6/4)

Results to date:
714 winning selections from 2562 = 27.87%
226 winning bets in 664 days = 34.04%

Stakes: 1327.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +99.64pts (+7.51% ROI)

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These are Tuesday’s selected races…

12.40 Southwell :

A poor-looking contest that appears (to me, at least!) to be a two horse contest. Schottische was a winner here over course and distance earlier in the year and is slipping back down to a winnable mark once again, as she runs off 55 today with all her best efforts coming in the 53 to 57 range in the past. She was a decent enough dead-heated third at Wolverhampton last time out and the other 3rd placed horse, Thermal Column, was a winner last Friday.

Robert Winston rides Schottische today and he is 6/17 (35.3% SR) on Alan Bailey’s runners here since the start of 2009 and you can get 5/2 BOG about them improving those figures.

In opposition, I’ve got Incurs Four Faults, who also seeks to take advantage of a falling handicap mark and has run creditably in his last two defeats, both off today’s mark of 53, but this does look a weaker contest that those last two outings at Chelmsford & Wolverhampton, both under today’s jockey Tom Queally, who might just be building up some rapport with the 4yr old gelding.

He could be well treated here, 8lbs lower than his last win and with trainer Keith Dalgleish having a near-30% strike rate at this venue (19 wins from 64) over the last seasons, Incurs Four Faults could well be number 20 for the yard at 2/1 BOG today.


5.40 Wolverhampton :

Feeltherhythm is a really interesting 4 yr old filly here today, as she makes only her fifth start and her UK debut after 4 runs in Ireland. Sent off at odds of 20/1, 25/1 (twice) and 33/1 in those outings, today’s 11/4 BOG ticket suggests more is expected of her on her second crack at this 1m4f trip, after three runs over 7/8 furlongs.

She defied a 694-day absence to finish third at Cork last time out, where she dead-heated for third alongside Coach Bombay who is subsequently a dual winner himself and having rested for three months since that run, she could very well prove to be too good for this lowly Class 7 contest. Win or lose, there’s something interesting about Feeltherhythm on her debut for new trainers.

She’s expected to get most competition from the 9/2 BOG Broughtons Berry, who went close to winning last time out, beaten by less than a length and a half into third place at 25/1 over this course and distance when dropped into this low grade for the first time 19 days ago.

She was denied a clear run that day, having to be switched a couple of times to try to find some racing room and a clearer passage late on, might be all that Broughtons Berry needs to finally get off the mark on attempt number ten!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Incurs Four Faults / Feeltherhythm @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : SkyBet)
Incurs Four Faults / Broughtons Berry @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Betway)
Schottische / Feeltherhythm @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Ladbrokes & Stan James)
Schottische / Broughtons Berry @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Betway)

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